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Right, so we've got Botafogo SP hosting Ceara in Serie B, and it's one of those fixtures where the numbers are pulling in two different directions and you just have to pick which one to trust.
The form book says Ceara are the team to watch. Three wins and two draws from their last five, no defeats, and they've won their last two games 1-0 each — one at home against Criciuma on 8 October and one on the road at Avai on 3 October. Over their last ten, they've picked up 1.7 points per game, scored 1.2 a pop and conceded just 1.1. That's a side that's clicking.
Botafogo SP, on the other hand, have won just two of their last ten — 0.8 points per game, and they've conceded 1.6 a game. Their last home game was a 0-1 loss to Vila Nova on 3 October, and they also lost 1-3 to Goias at home on 14 September. They did grab a 2-1 away win at Operario-PR on 7 October, but at home they've been leaky.
Now here's the wrinkle. Ceara's away record over their last 20 games is 4 wins, 6 draws, 10 losses. That's 0.9 points per game and 1.45 conceded per game. Botafogo SP at home over 20 games: 7 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses, 1.3 points per game, 1.15 conceded. On the structural numbers, the home side has the edge on every single line — points, goals scored, goals conceded, clean sheets, and failed-to-score counts all point the same way.
The head-to-head is mostly history. Four of the five meetings are two or three years old, and in those, Ceara won three and Botafogo SP drew one. The only recent meeting, back in June at Ceara's ground, was a 1-0 Botafogo SP win. So there's no real pattern to lean on here, and the dates reach back far enough that the older games dilute any current-form reading.
The market has Botafogo SP as slight favourites at 2.27, with the draw at 3.33 and Ceara at 3.4. That pricing makes sense — the home record says Botafogo SP, the form says Ceara, and the bookies are splitting the difference. Both teams' last five games lean under 2.5 goals (3 out of 5 under for each side), and Ceara's last two wins were both 1-0, so a low-scoring affair isn't out of the question, but the under 2.5 price at 1.6 doesn't offer enough to get excited about.
Key Points:
- Ceara are unbeaten in five, winning their last two 1-0 with clean sheets
- Botafogo SP lost their last home game 0-1 to Vila Nova and also lost 1-3 to Goias at home
- Ceara's away record over 20 games is 4W 6D 10L; Botafogo SP home is 7W 5D 8L
- The head-to-head is mostly historical, with only one meeting in the last 12 months
- Both teams' last five games lean under 2.5 goals (3/5 under each)
No Bet. The form gap favours Ceara, but the away record and Botafogo SP's home numbers keep this one balanced. I can't find a price I'd stake on with confidence.