Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Botafogo hosting Chapecoense-sc in Serie A on 17 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this one smells like a tight, low-scoring affair.
The case for Botafogo controlling this game is pretty straightforward. At home over their last 20 games, they've won 8, drawn 7 and lost 5, scoring 1.45 per game and conceding 1.25. Chapecoense-sc away over 20 games? Three wins, five draws, 12 losses. They've scored 0.7 per game and conceded 1.6. That's a gulf, mate. And if you look at the head-to-head at Botafogo's ground in the last 12 months, Botafogo won 1-0 back in April. The overall head-to-head tells the same story: 8 Botafogo wins, 1 draw, 4 Chapecoense-sc wins across 13 meetings dating back to 2014, though the older games are really just historical record.
But here's the thing that makes me lean towards under 2.5 rather than a straight Botafogo win. Look at the three recent head-to-head meetings: 2-0, 1-0, 1-4. Two of those three finished under 2.5 goals. And Chapecoense-sc's away record over 20 games has 12 of 20 going under 2.5. Botafogo at home? 8 of 20 under. The three recent head-to-head meetings at both venues — 2-0, 1-0, 1-4 — give you two low-scoring wins and one open game. The pattern leans that way.
Now, the counter-argument. Botafogo's own form is not exactly sparkling. One win, two draws, two losses in their last five. They lost 1-2 at home to Vasco DA Gama on 7 October and drew 1-1 at Coritiba on 12 October. They're not the team you'd back at 1.44 with total confidence. And Chapecoense-sc, while in a terrible run — lost their last two, scoring just 1 and conceding 8 — did manage to draw 1-1 away at both Atletico Nacional and Atletico-MG in September. They're not completely toothless.
That said, Chapecoense-sc's last two games have been ugly. A 1-4 home loss to Atletico Paranaense on 12 October and a 0-4 away defeat to Vitoria on 7 October. They've scored just 4 goals in their last five and conceded 12. Their away record of 3 wins in 20 games tells you they struggle on the road, and their 0.7 goals per game away is the lowest scoring rate in this matchup.
Key Points:
- Botafogo's home record (8W 7D 5L in 20 games) dwarfs Chapecoense-sc's away record (3W 5D 12L in 20 games)
- Two of the three recent head-to-head meetings finished under 2.5 goals
- Chapecoense-sc have lost their last two, conceding 8 goals and scoring just 1
- Botafogo's recent form is patchy — 1W 2D 2L in the last five
- Chapecoense-sc's away record shows 12 of 20 games finishing under 2.5
My verdict: under 2.5 goals at 2.42.