Botafogo vs Santos Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Brazilian scrap between Botafogo and Santos. The lads from Rio are sitting pretty in 6th place with 46 points, while Santos are languishing down in 16th with just 31 points - that's a proper 15-point gap telling you all you need to know about who's been having the better season.

Botafogo's recent form has been a bit hit and miss, mind you. They've only managed 3 wins in their last 10 games, scoring just 10 goals while letting in 14. They did put in a decent shift away at Ceara, winning 2-0, but then got absolutely spanked 3-0 at home by Flamengo. They've also struggled against the better teams, losing to Internacional, Fluminense, and Sao Paulo. Still, at home they've been scoring 1.4 goals per game, which ain't too shabby.

Santos, on the other hand, have been proper shocking on their travels. They haven't won a single away game in their last four attempts, managing just two draws and two losses. They're only scoring 0.75 goals per game away from home while conceding a whopping 2.0 goals per game on the road. Their recent form ain't great either - they just lost 0-1 at home to Vitoria, though they did have a decent 3-1 win against Corinthians. Let's not forget that 6-0 hammering they took from Vasco DA Gama either - that's the sort of defensive horror show that gives managers nightmares.

Head-to-head, Santos actually has the edge historically with 4 wins to Botafogo's 2, but Botafogo did win the last meeting 1-0. At home against Santos, Botafogo's record is 1-2-1, so it's not been all plain sailing.

Looking at the stats, both teams are pretty similar in terms of shot accuracy (around 30%), and Santos actually has slightly more possession overall. But when it comes to the crunch, Santos' away form is absolutely dreadful, and Botafogo should have enough quality at home to see this through.

The goal expectancy suggests around 2.88 goals in this one, which feels about right given Botafogo score 1.4 at home and Santos concede 2.0 away. Both teams have kept clean sheets in only 20% of their recent games, so we could see both sides get on the scoresheet.

All things considered, Botafogo's home advantage and Santos' travel sickness make this look like a home win to me. The odds of 1.83 for a Botafogo victory look about fair - not spectacular value, but solid enough for a punt.