Bournemouth vs Sunderland Prediction

Alright, gather round the bar, lads and lasses! We've got a proper Saturday lunchtime kick-off coming up from the South Coast as Bournemouth host Sunderland. And if the numbers are anything to go by, the Black Cats might be in for a rough afternoon by the seaside.

Let's start with the hosts, shall we? Bournemouth are absolutely flying at the minute – well, as much as you can be when you're drawing a few too many for comfort. They've only lost once in their last ten outings, and that was a narrow 2-3 defeat to league leaders Arsenal. Since then? It's been solid as a rock. We're talking about a side that's just beaten Liverpool 3-2 and Tottenham 3-2 at home, plus ground out results against the likes of Aston Villa (1-1) and Chelsea (2-2). The Cherries are banging in 2.25 goals per game at the Vitality Stadium – that's proper attacking intent.

Now, Sunderland. Bless 'em, they've had a torrid time of it lately. Five defeats in their last ten matches, including some absolute hidings away from home – 0-3 at Arsenal, 0-3 at Brentford, 1-3 at West Ham, and 1-3 against Fulham most recently. When they travel, they're only managing 0.67 goals per game while shipping nearly two (1.83). That's not a recipe for success, is it? Their three wins in the last ten have come against Oxford United (FA Cup), Burnley (who are second bottom), and Crystal Palace. Hardly the cream of the crop.

The head-to-head is actually dead even over the last five meetings – two wins apiece and a draw – with Sunderland nicking the reverse fixture 3-2 back in November. But form is temporary and all that, and right now these two are heading in opposite directions. Bournemouth are sitting pretty in 8th with 38 points, while Sunderland are down in 12th with 36, looking over their shoulders.

The goal expectancy numbers make interesting reading too – the models have this down for about 3.4 goals total (2.04 for Bournemouth, 1.33 for Sunderland). Given the Cherries' home games are averaging 4.25 goals a pop, we could be in for an entertaining watch.

Key Points:

• Bournemouth unbeaten in 9 of last 10, with wins over Liverpool and Tottenham at home

• Sunderland lost 5 of last 10, including heavy away defeats to Arsenal (0-3), Brentford (0-3) and Fulham (1-3)

• Bournemouth scoring 2.25 goals per game at home vs Sunderland conceding 1.83 away

• Sunderland's away win rate just 16.67% compared to Bournemouth's 50% home win rate

• Goal expectancy suggests a high-scoring affair with 3.37 total goals projected

Summary:

Look, Sunderland got the better of Bournemouth earlier in the season, but that feels like ancient history now. The Cherries are in rude health at home, scoring for fun against top sides, while the Black Cats are shipping goals left, right and centre on their travels. At 1.80, the home win looks decent value – I'm calling it a 60% chance Bournemouth take all three points here. Get on the home win.