Bournemouth vs Sunderland Prediction

Right, so we've got Bournemouth hosting Sunderland on 18 October, and if I'm being straight with you, the numbers here are leaning one way. Bournemouth at home over their last 20 games have won 7, drawn 10 and lost just 3, scoring 2.15 a game and conceding 1.1. That's a tidy record. Sunderland on the road over 20 away games have won 8, drawn 4 and lost 8, scoring 1.55 a game and conceding 1.65. So Bournemouth are scoring more at home than Sunderland manage away, and keeping things tighter to boot.

Look at the last five and it's a similar story. Bournemouth have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2, scoring 8 and conceding 9. Sunderland have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3, scoring 6 and conceding 10. Sunderland's defence has been leaking — 2 a game in that stretch. And just 8 days ago they were beaten 0-2 at home by Brighton, while Bournemouth put 3 past Sturm Graz at home on 15 October.

The head-to-head is a bit thin on recent meetings. The last time these two met at Bournemouth's ground was a 1-1 draw back in February, and before that Sunderland won 3-2 at their own end in November. So it's not a one-sided history, but the overall picture over 20 home games and 20 away games gives Bournemouth the edge on points per game (1.55 to 1.4) and goals conceded (1.1 to 1.65).

Now, the counter-argument. Bournemouth aren't exactly flying — they lost 5-1 to Chelsea on 10 October and 0-1 to Liverpool at home on 20 September. Their form isn't perfect. And Sunderland did pick up a 2-1 win away at Torreense on 15 October, so they're not without a spark. The 3-2 result at Sunderland's ground last November also shows these two can produce goals when it's on.

But the weight of the evidence — Bournemouth's home record, Sunderland's away struggles, the recent results — tips this towards the hosts. The market has Bournemouth at 2.12, which implies about 47% chance. I'd put them a touch higher than that, around 53%, given the home record and Sunderland's leaky away defence.

Key Points:

• Bournemouth's home record: 7W 10D 3L in 20 games, 2.15 scored per game, 1.1 conceded per game

• Sunderland's away record: 8W 4D 8L in 20 games, 1.55 scored per game, 1.65 conceded per game

• Recent form: Bournemouth 2W 1D 2L vs Sunderland 2W 0D 3L in last 5

• H2H at Bournemouth's ground: 1-1 draw (28 February 2026)

• Sunderland conceded 10 goals in their last 5 matches

Verdict: Bournemouth home win.