Bournemouth vs Tottenham Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Bournemouth at home to Tottenham, and if you're looking for a team in a rut, look no further than the Cherries. No wins in their last ten. Let that sink in. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Five draws and five losses, and they're shipping goals for fun – 24 conceded in those ten games. That's more than two a game, and it's why they're down in 15th.

Their recent results tell the story: a brave 2-3 loss to league leaders Arsenal, a mad 4-4 draw at Manchester United, but also a worrying 1-4 thumping at Brentford and a 1-1 home draw with struggling Burnley. They can score, mind you – they've netted in three of their last four at home – but keeping the other lot out is the problem. At the Vitality, they've drawn three of their last five, which tells you they're hard to beat but even harder to win.

As for Tottenham, well, they're the definition of up and down. Thirteenth in the table, they've won three, drawn three, lost four of their last ten. They can be tidy, keeping four clean sheets in that run, but on the road it's a different kettle of fish. Their last three away league trips read: a 0-0 at Brentford, a 1-0 win at Crystal Palace, and a proper shocker, a 3-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest. They've only scored once in those three away games. So, while they're generally decent at the back, finding the net on their travels has been a real struggle lately.

When these two get together, it's usually a decent watch. Spurs just about edge the head-to-head with four wins to Bournemouth's three. The Cherries won the reverse fixture back in August 1-0, so they'll have that in the locker. History says goals are likely – five of the last nine meetings have seen over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in more than half of them.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Bournemouth as slight favourites at 2.05, which feels generous for a team that can't buy a win. Tottenham are 3.30 to win away, which might tempt you given Bournemouth's fragility, but Spurs' own travel sickness puts me off. The draw at 3.70 has some appeal given both sides' tendencies to share the points.

But for me, the value and the story of the game points to goals at both ends. Bournemouth score at home (1.0 per game on average) but concede plenty (1.4 at home). Tottenham struggle to score away (1.2 per game) but face a defence that's been obliging to everyone. I fancy both nets to ripple. The odds for 'Both Teams to Score - Yes' are sitting at 1.62, and with the way these two are set up, I think that's the smart play.

Key Points:

Bournemouth are winless in 10 matches (0W, 5D, 5L).

Tottenham have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away league games.

Head-to-head history favours goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 5 of the last 9 meetings.

Bournemouth's defence has conceded 24 goals in their last 10 outings.

• The reverse fixture this season ended in a 1-0 Bournemouth victory.

Summary: It's a clash between a team that can't win and a team that can't score away. Something's got to give, but I think both will manage to find the net in what could be a scrappy, open affair. The value pick is for both teams to score.