Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Bradford hosting Stevenage on 17 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a clear shape to it.
Bradford at home are the side to back. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 11, drawn 5 and lost 4, picking up 1.9 points per game. More importantly, they've only conceded 0.65 a game at home and kept 10 clean sheets in those 20. That's a tight, disciplined unit at home. In their last five matches across all competitions, they've gone 3 wins, 2 draws, no losses, and they've only conceded 2 goals in that stretch. Yeah, the most recent one was a 0-0 at home against Leyton Orient, but before that they were smashing Rotherham 4-0 away and picking up wins at Luton. No defeats in five — that's a side with a handle on things.
Now, Stevenage are in a bit of a different mood. They're on a three-game winning run, scoring 9 and conceding just 2, and they've won 4 of their last 5. That's good form, no doubt. But here's the catch: three of those four wins came at home, and the other was an EFL Trophy game away at Walsall. Their actual away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses — 1.0 points per game — and they've conceded 1.5 a game on the road. That's a world away from what Bradford are doing at home. The 6-1 away win at Walsall was in the Trophy, and the competitive away outing at Leyton Orient ended 0-1. So the real test of their travelling credentials is a bit thin.
The head-to-head at this venue in the last 12 months is just one game — Stevenage won 1-0 back in April — but the older meetings, three and four years ago in League Two, all went Bradford's way. Those are historical, so I won't lean on them as current form, but they do paint a picture of Bradford being the stronger side in this fixture. The recent H2H is dated and limited, so I'm leaning on the venue records and current form.
The matchup table tells the story clearly: Bradford at home average 1.9 points per game to Stevenage's 1.0 away, concede 0.65 to 1.5, and keep 10 clean sheets in 20 to Stevenage's 5. On every meaningful measure, the home side is the better proposition.
The counter-argument? Stevenage are in hot form, and that 1-0 win here in April showed they can park the bus and pick off a home side. They've also scored 11 goals in their last five, so they've got the firepower. But form doesn't always travel, and their away record over 20 games is the real test. Bradford's defence at home is the best thing in this fixture.
Key Points:
- Bradford are unbeaten in their last five matches and have only conceded 2 goals in that stretch
- Bradford's home record: 11W 5D 4L, 1.9 ppg, 0.65 conceded per game
- Stevenage's away record: 5W 5D 10L, 1.0 ppg, 1.5 conceded per game
- Stevenage's recent form is strong, but 3 of their last 4 wins came at home
- The only meeting at this venue in the last 12 months went to Stevenage 1-0
The market has Bradford at 1.95, which prices them at 51.28%. My read is that Bradford are the stronger side at home, and I'd put their chances closer to 55%. That's a small but real edge, and the numbers back it up. When the home side is this solid and the visitors' away record is this shaky, you take the value and move on.
Verdict: Bradford home win at 1.95.