Brann vs Viking Prediction

Viking are absolutely flying at the moment, and that's the headline here. Three straight wins, 14 goals scored, and just one conceded across those three games. An 8-1 demolition of Kristiansund BK at home, a 3-0 over Lillestrom, and then a 3-0 away at Madla in the cup. That's a side that's clicking on all cylinders, and they're arriving at Brann's ground with serious momentum.

Brann, on the other hand, are having a bit of a rough patch. They lost 1-2 to Start just seven days ago, and before that they'd dropped to Lillestrom 1-2 at home. In their last five, they've managed 2 wins and 3 losses, conceded 8 goals, and haven't kept a single clean sheet. Their home record over 20 games isn't exactly inspiring either — 9 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses, with 1.5 conceded per game. That's a defence that's been picking up a goal or two in most games, and it's going to be a problem against a Viking attack that's averaging 3.2 goals per game in the last five.

Now, the away numbers for Viking are the real story. Over 20 away games, they've won 10, drawn 6, lost 4, averaging 1.8 points per game. They concede just 1 goal per game on the road and have kept 6 clean sheets in those 20. Brann at home manage 1.5 points per game and concede 1.5 per game. That's a clear gap in the numbers, and it's the kind of gap that tends to show up on matchday.

The head-to-head is thin on recent meetings — just one within the last 12 months, and Viking won 3-2 at their own ground back in April. The older meetings at Brann's ground show Brann with 1 win and 2 draws from 3, but those are historical and don't really tell you what's happening now. The dates on those games stretch back years, so I'd lean on the current form rather than the old ledger.

The counter-argument? Brann did beat Bodo/Glimt 2-1 at home two weeks ago, and they had a red card in that game — Brann, minute 68 — which might have helped them hold on. They're not a team that's completely lost the plot; they've scored in 4 of their last 5 and the goals are still coming. But the defence is the problem, and that's where Viking will be looking to do the damage. Viking have scored in every one of their last 10 games, and their attack is averaging 2.7 goals per game over that stretch. Brann's defence has conceded 1.6 per game in the last five. Put those two facts together and you've got a recipe for an away win.

The market has Viking at 2.28, which prices them at about 44%. I'd put their chances closer to 50%, which means there's a bit of value in the away win. When a side is scoring 14 and conceding 1 in three games, and the opposition haven't kept a clean sheet in five, you don't need to overthink it.

Key Points:

• Viking won their last 3, scoring 14 and conceding just 1

• Viking's away record: 10W 6D 4L, 1.8 ppg, 1 conceded per game

• Brann lost their last 1 and have 0 clean sheets in 5 games

• Brann's home record: 9W 3D 8L, 1.5 conceded per game

• Only 1 recent H2H meeting: Viking won 3-2 at their ground

Verdict: I'm going with the Viking away win.