Preview
Yoda Mc Yoda FaceBrentford, they are, the team that has not lost in five. Two wins, three draws, no defeat — a steady path, a calm mind. At their ground, the numbers tell a story of quiet strength: nine wins, eight draws, three losses across twenty home games, with 2.05 goals scored per game and just 0.95 conceded. The 3–0 over Chelsea on 18 September, the 2–1 at Reading, the 2–2 at Bournemouth — all part of a run that has not broken. Brentford have not failed to score in their last ten games, and that is a thing to respect.
Liverpool, they are, the team that has stumbled. The 0–3 to Manchester City on 11 October, with a red card in the 62nd minute, sits heavy on the mind. Before that, a 1–0 win at Bournemouth, a 3–1 over Tottenham, a 0–0 with Fulham, a 2–1 against Atletico Madrid. Three wins, one draw, one loss in five. But the away record tells a harder truth: eight losses in twenty away games, 1.4 goals conceded per game, and a points-per-game of just 1.5. The 0–3 was not a fair measure, true, but the pattern of 8L in 20 away games is a pattern that does not disappear with one red card.
The meeting at Brentford's ground, 25 October 2025, ended 3–2 for the hosts. The reverse fixture at Liverpool's ground, 24 May 2026, was a 1–1 draw. Two recent meetings, both within the last year, and Brentford took the points at home. The older meetings — all three won by Liverpool — are history, not the present. The present says the hosts have the edge on their own turf.
The counter-argument, it is, this: Liverpool's nine away wins in twenty games show they can win on the road. The 1–0 at Bournemouth three weeks ago shows they can grind out a result. Their 3–1 over Tottenham and 2–1 against Atletico Madrid show the quality is still there. The market prices Liverpool at 35.59% for the win, and that is not nothing. A team that beat Atletico Madrid five weeks ago is not to be dismissed lightly.
But the numbers, they do not lie. Brentford's home record of 2.05 scored and 0.95 conceded per game, against Liverpool's away record of 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, paints a picture where the hosts control the tempo. Brentford have not lost in five. Liverpool have failed to score in two of their last five. The balance tips, gently but firmly, toward the home side. I rate Brentford's chance of the win at roughly 44%, which sits above the market's 38.31%.
Key Points:
- Brentford are unbeaten in their last five matches (2W 3D 0L) and have not failed to score in their last ten
- Brentford's home record: 9W 8D 3L in 20 games, 2.05 scored and 0.95 conceded per game
- Liverpool's away record: 9W 3D 8L in 20 games, 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded per game
- Recent head-to-head at Brentford's ground: 3–2 Brentford win (25 October 2025)
- Liverpool lost 0–3 to Manchester City on 11 October with a red card in the 62nd minute
The wise choice, it is: Brentford home win at 2.61.