Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so here we are. Brentford hosting Liverpool, and if you've been following the Bees recently, you'll know they've been absolutely flying. No losses in their last ten games — not one. Not a single defeat. And they're scoring at a rate that would make most top-flight forwards blush: 3.1 a game across those ten. Their home record over the last 20 games is 9 wins, 8 draws, 3 losses, with 2.05 goals scored per game and just 0.95 conceded. That's a solid record, and it's the kind of numbers that make you feel comfortable when the big teams come to town.
Now, the visitors have had a rough week. Liverpool went down 0-3 to Manchester City at Anfield on 11 October, and to make matters worse, they were a man down from the 62nd minute. That's a tough one to shake off, and it does raise a question: how much of that loss was the red card, and how much was Liverpool's form? Well, the form question matters more here, because Liverpool's away record over the last 20 games is 9 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses. Eight losses on the road is a lot, and it tells you the Reds are not as comfortable away from home as their home record might suggest. They're scoring 1.4 per game on the road and conceding 1.4 — not the most reassuring of numbers for a team travelling to a side that's been scoring 2.05 a game at home.
And let's talk about this specific fixture. In October 2025, Brentford beat Liverpool 3-2 right here. The most recent meeting at Anfield was a 1-1 draw in May. So in the last 12 months, the Bees have taken a point from Anfield and won at home. That's a decent little run for a team that, to be fair, has historically struggled against Liverpool — six wins for the Reds in ten all-time meetings. But that's the older stuff, reaching back two years. The last two meetings say something different, and I'd put more weight on what's happening now.
Brentford's form is the headline. They've scored 10 goals in their last five, conceded just 6, and haven't lost. They beat Chelsea 3-0 at home on 18 September, and the 2-2 draws at Bournemouth and Aston Villa show they're not afraid to go to the edge. Their xG numbers back it up too — 2.28 per game in the three matches where we have the data, which is a healthy output. Liverpool, for their part, are still a dangerous side. Three wins in their last five, and they scored 3-1 at Tottenham and 2-1 at Atletico Madrid. But two of their last five were low-scoring — the 0-0 at Fulham and the 0-1 at Bournemouth — and they failed to score in two of those five. And that 0-3 to City, even with the red card, was a reminder that the defence can be exposed.
The counter-argument is simple: Liverpool are Liverpool. They've won 5 of their last 10, and the City loss was a one-off with a man down. They've got quality that can turn a game on its head. And historically, they've dominated this fixture. But history is history. The last two meetings at both grounds have been competitive, and the current form gap is real. Brentford are the team that hasn't lost, is scoring at a high rate, and has the home record to back it up.
Key Points:
- Brentford are unbeaten in their last 10 games, scoring 3.1 per game
- Liverpool lost 0-3 to Manchester City on 11 October with a red card
- Brentford beat Liverpool 3-2 at this ground in October 2025
- Liverpool's away record: 9W 3D 8L over 20 games
- Brentford's home record: 9W 8D 3L over 20 games
My tip: Brentford home win.