Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got Brentford hosting Liverpool on 17 October, and let me tell you, this one's got a proper flavour to it.
The Bees at home have been cooking. Over their last 20 home games, Brentford have picked up 9 wins, 8 draws and just 3 losses, averaging 1.75 points per game. They're scoring 2.05 a game and conceding only 0.95. That's a tight, disciplined unit at home, and it shows in the numbers. More recently, they've gone unbeaten in their last five matches — two wins and three draws — scoring 10 goals and conceding just 6. That 3–0 over Chelsea at home on 18 September was a proper statement, and they've kept it going since. In their last 10 games across all venues, Brentford have won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0, scoring 3.1 per game and conceding just 1. They've scored in every single one of those 10.
Now look at Liverpool's away record over 20 games: 9 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses. That's 1.5 points per game, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4. It's not terrible, but it's not the same as what Brentford are putting up at home. And the last 12 months of head-to-head at this ground tells the story: Brentford beat Liverpool 3–2 here on 25 October last year. Their most recent meeting, at Liverpool's ground, was a 1–1 draw. So the recent pattern at Brentford's ground is in the Bees' favour.
The counter-argument is that Liverpool are still a quality side. They've won 5 of their last 10 across all competitions, including a 3–1 over Tottenham and a 2–1 against Atletico Madrid. The 0–3 loss to Manchester City on 11 October was ugly, but it came with a red card in the 62nd minute, and it was at home. Away, they've been more measured — a 1–0 win at Bournemouth on 20 September shows they can take narrow results on the road. And over the last 10 games, they've scored 16 and conceded 12, which isn't a disaster.
But here's the thing: Brentford's home numbers are simply better than Liverpool's away numbers on the key measures. More points per game, more goals scored, fewer goals conceded. The Bees haven't dropped a point in five, and they've scored in every one of their last 10 matches. Liverpool, on the other hand, have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 and picked up that 0–3 defeat. The xG numbers back it up too — Brentford are averaging 2.28 xG for over their last three games with data, while Liverpool are averaging 1.6 for over their last four.
Key Points:
- Brentford are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2W 3D 0L), scoring 2 per game and conceding 1.2
- Brentford's home record: 9W 8D 3L in 20 games, 2.05 scored, 0.95 conceded per game
- Liverpool's away record: 9W 3D 8L in 20 games, 1.4 scored, 1.4 conceded per game
- Head-to-head at Brentford's ground in the last 12 months: Brentford won 3–2
- Liverpool's 0–3 loss to City came with a red card; away form has been more stable
So here's my take: Brentford home win. The home record, the recent form, the head-to-head at this ground — it all points the same way. The market has them at 2.61, but I'd put Brentford's probability closer to 44%. That's a value I can get behind. Grab a beer, fire up the braai, and back the Bees.