Brighton vs Arsenal Prediction

Right then, we've got a tasty midweek clash down on the south coast as Brighton host the league leaders Arsenal. The Gunners are sitting pretty at the top with 64 points, five clear of City, while the Seagulls are bobbing along in mid-table looking to cause a proper upset under the lights.

Now, Brighton have had a funny old season, haven't they? Nine wins, ten draws, nine losses – they're the definition of inconsistent. But look at their last couple of results and there's a glimmer of hope for the home fans. They put two past Nottingham Forest last weekend and did the business against Brentford the week before with a 2-0 win. That's four goals in two games, which for a side averaging just one a game over the last ten, is practically a goal glut!

Mind you, Arsenal are a different kettle of fish entirely. The Gunners have been flying with seven wins from their last ten, banging in 2.6 goals a game on average. They just stuck four past Spurs and two past Chelsea. Even when they slip up, like that 2-2 draw at Wolves, they're still finding the net for fun.

The head-to-head makes grim reading for Brighton fans – Arsenal have won five of the last nine meetings and the Seagulls have never beaten the Gunners at home in this sample. But here's the thing: Brighton have scored in four of their last five against Arsenal, and with the visitors conceding in six of their last ten on the road, we're expecting both teams to have a proper go at this.

The numbers tell us we're looking at nearly three goals expected in this one, and with Arsenal involved in seven goal-fests from their last ten, the Over 2.5 at 1.91 looks a cracking bit of value. Brighton might not get the win, but they should contribute to the entertainment.

Key Points:

• Arsenal have scored 26 goals in their last 10 games (2.6 per game)

• Brighton have found form recently with wins against Forest (2-1) and Brentford (2-0)

• The last five meetings have seen both teams score on four occasions

• Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.91 with goal expectancies suggesting 2.88 total goals

• Arsenal have kept only 40% clean sheets in their last 10, suggesting Brighton will get chances

Summary:

Arsenal will probably have too much quality in the end, but at 1.62 there's no value in backing the away win. Instead, let's go with Over 2.5 Goals at 1.91 – both teams have been finding the net regularly, and this has the makings of an open, entertaining affair.