Brighton vs Burnley Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this New Year's cracker down on the south coast. Brighton, sitting pretty in mid-table, welcome a Burnley side who are having a right old nightmare down in 19th. On paper, it's a home banker, innit? But football's never that simple, and the history books have got a thing or two to say about this fixture.

First, the form guide. Brighton are the definition of steady Eddie. Three wins, four draws, three losses in their last ten. They're hard to beat, especially at home where they've won two of their last five, drawn two, and lost just the one. They're scoring at a decent clip of 1.8 goals a game at the Amex. They've seen off the likes of Brentford and Leeds there recently, but they've also been held by Sunderland and West Ham. They're a solid, possession-based side – averaging over 55% of the ball and 85% pass accuracy. They control games.

Now, Burnley. Blimey. No wins in their last ten. None. Zero. Zilch. Two draws and eight defeats is a proper relegation form guide. They're conceding two goals a game on average, and a whopping 2.25 every time they go on their travels. They're bottom of the league for a reason. But – and it's a big but – they've shown a tiny bit of fight lately. They've drawn two of their last three, nicking points off Everton and Bournemouth. More importantly for us, they've actually been scoring on the road. They've found the net in their last four away trips, putting two past West Ham and one each against Bournemouth, Newcastle, and Brentford. They might be leaky, but they're not completely toothless.

And here's the real kicker for this preview: the head-to-head. Brighton have never beaten Burnley at home in the last five meetings here. It's a proper bogey fixture. They've drawn three and lost two. Even more telling, both teams have scored in seven of the last nine clashes between these two. It doesn't matter if it's at the Turf Moor or the Amex, when these two meet, the nets tend to ripple at both ends.

So, what's the play? The bookies have Brighton at a skinny 1.53 to win. That's probably about right, but with that horrible home record against Burnley, I'm not rushing to back it at that price. The value, for my money, lies in the goals market. Brighton score at home, Burnley score away (sometimes). Brighton's defence isn't watertight, conceding in three of their last five at home. Burnley's defence is more like a sieve. The goal expectancy models are pointing towards a 2-1 kind of scoreline.

The odds for Both Teams to Score - Yes are sitting at 1.80. Given the history, the recent trends, and the fact Burnley have to come out and try and get something from this game, I fancy those odds represent a bit of value. It's the classic 'too good to ignore' stat: both teams scoring in 78% of their recent meetings.

Key Points:

Brighton are solid at home but have a poor historical record against Burnley at the Amex.

Burnley are in awful form but have scored in their last four away games.

Both teams have scored in 7 of the last 9 head-to-head meetings.

Brighton average 1.8 goals scored at home; Burnley average 1.25 scored but 2.25 conceded away.

• The market odds for Both Teams to Score (1.80) look generous compared to the historical likelihood.

In a nutshell: This has all the makings of a proper, end-to-end Premier League game. Brighton will likely dominate and should win, but Burnley's need for points and their scoring touch on the road, combined with a history of goals in this fixture, makes backing both teams to find the net the smart play.