Brisbane Roar vs Auckland Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. It's top versus fourth as Auckland make the trip to face Brisbane Roar. The league leaders are three points clear, but they're coming up against a Brisbane side that's been solid at home, despite a proper shellacking last time out.

Brisbane are having a bit of a wobble. They got turned over 3-0 at home by Wellington Phoenix just a few days ago. That's a real worry, especially as Wellington aren't exactly world-beaters. Before that, they'd been grinding out results – a 2-1 win at Central Coast, a 1-0 win at Adelaide, and a 1-0 home win over Melbourne Victory. The pattern is clear: they're tight at the back, keeping five clean sheets in their last ten, but they don't half struggle to score, averaging less than a goal a game.

Auckland, on the other hand, are the league's pace-setters for a reason. Their away form is the stuff of dreams: unbeaten in their last five on the road, with three wins and two draws. Even more impressive is their defence away from home, conceding just 0.6 goals per game on their travels. They've taken points off strong sides like Sydney and Macarthur away, and smashed the weaker teams. They did have a blip at home, losing 3-1 to Newcastle, but on the road they look a proper outfit.

When these two met back in November, it finished 1-1. In fact, Brisbane have never beaten Auckland in four attempts, losing twice and drawing twice. The history books aren't on the Roar's side.

So, what's gonna happen? Auckland are the better side and are brilliant away. But Brisbane are stubborn, especially at home where they've only lost once in their last four. I can't see this being a goal-fest. Brisbane's attack is blunt, and Auckland's away defence is a brick wall. Both teams' recent goal trends are on the slide. The maths says the goal expectancy is low, around 1.9 total goals.

The bookies have both teams to score at short odds, but I'm not having it. Brisbane's games see both teams score only 30% of the time. This has 1-0 to Auckland or a dour 0-0 written all over it.

Key Points:

Auckland are top and unbeaten in their last five away games (W3 D2).

Brisbane are defensively solid at home, conceding just 0.75 goals per game.

Brisbane's attack is struggling, averaging only 0.9 goals per game.

The head-to-head record heavily favours Auckland (W2 D2 L0).

• Both teams' recent form shows a declining trend in goals scored.

The Simple Tip: All the numbers point to a low-scoring affair. The value, at nearly evens, is on Under 2.5 Goals. I fancy a tight, cagey game where one goal might decide it, if we're lucky.