Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory Prediction

Righto, Brisbane Roar are hosting Perth Glory on 23 October, and I reckon this one's got goals in it, mate. Grab a beer and let's get into it.

Brisbane Roar have been absolutely cooking in the goal-scoring department lately. In their last five matches, they've had over 2.5 goals in every single game — that's five out of five. They've scored 12 and conceded 12 across those five, which is 2.4 a side per game. Their last outing was a 4-3 win away at Olympic, and before that they were involved in a 3-0 win at Sydney Olympic and a 2-4 loss at home to Sydney. The last ten games tell the same story: 8 of 10 have gone over 2.5, and 8 of 10 have seen both teams find the net. They've only managed one clean sheet in their last five and failed to score in zero of those five.

Now, their home record over 20 games is a bit more even — 10 over, 10 under — but the recent form is screaming goals. They score 1.25 per game at home and concede 1.3, and they've kept 8 clean sheets in those 20 home games.

Perth Glory, on the other hand, have been a bit of a struggle on the road. Their last two games have been losses — 1-2 at Macarthur six days ago and 1-3 at home to Adelaide United two weeks back. Their away record over 20 games is 4 wins, 7 draws, 9 losses, and they concede 1.6 per game on the road. That's a lot of goals leaking out. They've only kept 4 clean sheets in 20 away games and failed to score in 9 of them, scoring just 1.05 per game.

The head-to-head at Brisbane's ground in the last 12 months was just one meeting — a 1-1 draw back in February. So there's not much history to lean on at this venue recently. The older meetings at this ground go back to a 0-1 Perth win in December 2024, but that's historical and doesn't really tell us what to expect now.

The counter-argument is that Perth Glory's last five games have only gone over 2.5 in three of five, and their away record sits at 11 of 20 over. Brisbane Roar's 20-game home record is a flat 50/50 on the over/under split. And that one recent H2H at this ground was a low-scoring 1-1. So there's a case for a tight, cagey game.

But I'm looking at Brisbane Roar's recent form — 5 out of 5 over 2.5, 8 out of 10 over 2.5 — and Perth Glory's away defensive record of conceding 1.6 per game. I reckon the goals are coming. My gut says this goes over 2.5, and I rate that chance at around 56%, which sits just above the bookmaker's 54.05% implied probability. It's not a massive edge, but the football is pointing the right way.

Key Points:

• Brisbane Roar have gone over 2.5 in all of their last 5 matches and 8 of their last 10

• Perth Glory concede 1.6 per game in their 20 away matches and have lost their last 2

• The only recent meeting at Brisbane's ground (February 2026) was a 1-1 draw

• Brisbane Roar's home record over 20 games is evenly split: 10 over, 10 under

• Perth Glory's away record: 4W 7D 9L, scoring 1.05 and conceding 1.6 per game

I'm going with over 2.5 goals at 1.85.