Preview
PajimonI've got my braai lit and a cold one in hand, and Bristol City versus Blackburn on 13 October is the one I'm staring at. Let me walk you through what the numbers are telling me.
The strongest case here is Bristol City's home record. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 9, drawn 2 and lost 9, averaging 1.45 points per game. They score 1.45 per game at home and concede 1.25, keeping 7 clean sheets in that stretch. Now look at Blackburn on the road: 6 wins, 6 draws, 8 losses from 20 away games, 1.2 points per game, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.5. The gap is clear — Bristol City's home numbers are the stronger set. And if you zoom in on the last 10 games for both sides, Bristol City are at 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses for 1.7 points per game, while Blackburn sit at 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses for 1.2. The hosts are outperforming in that window.
The head-to-head at this ground adds a layer. The most recent meeting here, on 4 November 2025, was a 1–0 Blackburn win. That's the one that matters most. Before that, the older meetings at this venue — 2–1 and 5–0 — both went Bristol City's way, but those are historical and I won't lean on them. Still, the ground has a history of producing Bristol City results.
Now the counter-argument, and I'll be straight with you. Bristol City's last five has been a bit of a mess. They lost 0–1 to Lincoln at home and got thumped 1–4 at Southampton. Their xG against over the last five games with data sits at 1.78 per game, which means the opposition has been creating more than Bristol City have been dealing with. And Blackburn? They've scored in every one of their last five games — 9 goals in 5 matches. That's a side that's got the confidence to put a boot in, and it makes the 1–0 H2H result here feel less like a fluke.
So where do I land? Bristol City's home record is solidly better than Blackburn's away record. The form comparison over the last 10 games favours the hosts. The market has Bristol City at 1.95, which prices them at about 51%. I rate Bristol City's chance of winning this one at around 53%, a touch above the market's view. The 1–0 Blackburn win here last November keeps me from going all-in, but the overall picture — home record, points per game, the last 10 — tips it the hosts' way.
Key Points:
- Bristol City's home record (9W 2D 9L, 1.45 ppg) is clearly stronger than Blackburn's away record (6W 6D 8L, 1.2 ppg)
- Bristol City's last 10 form (1.7 ppg) outpaces Blackburn's (1.2 ppg)
- The most recent H2H at this ground was a 1–0 Blackburn win on 4 November 2025
- Blackburn have scored in all 5 of their recent games, but their away record is the weaker one
- Bristol City's xG against (1.78 per game) suggests defensive vulnerability in recent matches
Bristol City home win.