Right, so we've got Bromley hosting Leicester on 20 October, and if I'm being honest, the form books are telling a pretty clear story here.
Bromley are in a bit of a mess. Four straight losses, and in those four they've managed just one goal while conceding eight. The 0-4 thrashing at Crawley in the EFL Trophy two weeks ago stung, and the 0-1 loss at Stockport County three days ago hasn't done much to lift spirits. Over their last ten games across all competitions, they've won just once, drawn twice and lost seven, picking up a mere 0.5 points per game. Their xG numbers back it up too — they're averaging 0.85 expected goals for in four games with data, while their opponents are racking up 2.3 per game against them. That's a defence that's leaking like a sieve.
Leicester, on the other hand, are in a much better place. They've won their last game, a 2-1 home victory over Doncaster, and over their last ten they've won four, drawn two and lost four, averaging 1.4 points per game. They've scored in all five of their recent matches, and their xG against is a tidy 0.88 per game, which tells you their back line is holding up well. Their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 11 draws and 4 losses — not a bad record, though those 11 draws do show they can be a bit stubborn on the road.
Now, the counter-argument: Leicester's away form is full of draws, and they did lose 1-3 to Peterborough at home ten days ago. Bromley's home record over 20 games is 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses, which isn't the world. And with no head-to-head on record, there's no history to lean on. The Foxes aren't flawless, and Bromley have shown they can score at home — they beat Huddersfield 2-1 four weeks ago.
But the gap in recent form is hard to ignore. Bromley are conceding at a rate that's worrying, and Leicester's defence is doing a solid job. The xG numbers paint a picture of a team struggling to create facing a team that's keeping things tight. The market prices Leicester at 1.75, implying about 57% chance, and my own read puts them in a similar ballpark — maybe a touch lower given those 11 away draws. That's not enough of a gap for me to feel the price is offering value.
Key Points:
- Bromley have lost their last four, scoring just 1 and conceding 8
- Leicester have won their last game and scored in all five of their recent matches
- Leicester's away record: 5W 11D 4L over 20 games
- No head-to-head meetings on record between the two sides
- Bromley's xG against is 2.3 per game; Leicester's xG against is 0.88 per game
No Bet — the form gap favours Leicester, but their away record is packed with draws and the 1.75 price doesn't give me the confidence to back an outright win.
