Bromley and Leicester meet at the Bromley end of things on 20 October, and I'll be honest with you, mate — this one's got me scratching my head. The football evidence points firmly in Leicester's direction, but the price on the table doesn't let me lock it in with the confidence I need.
The form gap is stark. Over their last 10 games across all venues, Leicester have picked up 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses at 1.4 points per game, scoring 1.8 a game and conceding 1.8. Bromley, on the other hand, have managed just 1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses in that same stretch, at 0.5 points per game, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.6. That's a gulf, and not a small one. Bromley's last four games have been a nightmare — they've lost all four, scored just 1 goal and conceded 8. Their xG against over the last four games with data sits at 2.3 per game, which tells you their backline is leaking like a bucket in a storm. Leicester's xG against, by contrast, is 0.88 per game over their last three games with data. That's a tight defence. And Leicester's xG for is 1.93 per game — they're creating chances and their defence is holding up.
Leicester won their last game, 2–1 against Doncaster at home on 17 October, and they've scored in all five of their last five matches. Their away record over 20 games shows 5 wins, 11 draws and 4 losses, with 1.3 points per game and 1.2 conceded per game. That's a side that doesn't lose easily on the road, even if they don't always win. They also failed to score in only 3 of those 20 away games, so there's a goal in them most of the time.
Now, the counter-argument, and I'll give Bromley their due. Their home record over 20 games is 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses at 1.6 points per game. That's a solid home base. They've scored 1.15 per game at home and conceded 1.35. They beat Huddersfield 2–1 at home on 19 September, which was their only win in the last five. And Leicester's away record, while respectable, is heavy on draws — 11 out of 20. That means Leicester don't always get the win on the road, and a draw is a very real possibility here. There's also no head-to-head on record between these two, so we're flying blind on that front. The 6–1 win over Fulham U21 in the EFL Trophy on 22 September was a nice one, but that's a different level of opposition.
The market has Leicester at 1.75 for the win, which implies about 57%. My own read, looking at the form, the xG numbers and the venue records, puts Leicester's chance of winning at roughly 55 to 56%. They're the stronger side, no doubt about it, but Bromley's home record and Leicester's tendency to draw away keep me from being fully confident at the price on offer. The other markets — over 2.5, under 2.5, both teams to score — all sit in a similar spot where the evidence points one way but the numbers don't give me the confidence to lock it in.
Key Points:
- Bromley have lost their last four games, scoring 1 and conceding 8, with an xG against of 2.3 per game over their last four matches with data
- Leicester's last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, 1.4 PPG, 1.8 scored per game, 1.8 conceded per game
- Leicester's away record over 20 games: 5W 11D 4L, 1.3 PPG, 1.2 conceded per game
- Bromley's home record over 20 games: 8W 8D 4L, 1.6 PPG, 1.15 scored per game
- No head-to-head meetings on record between these two sides
So here's where I land: the football says Leicester are the better team and the more likely to win, but the price at 1.75 doesn't give me the confidence to back it. The available prices could not be used for a recommendation. No Bet.
