BSC Young Boys vs FC Zurich Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Swiss Super League clash. Young Boys at home to FC Zurich. On paper, it's sixth versus eighth, but the form book makes for some pretty grim reading if you're a Young Boys fan, I'll tell you that for nothing.

Young Boys are having a proper nightmare. Two wins in their last ten? That's relegation form, that is. They've shipped 22 goals in that run, including a 4-1 pasting by league leaders Thun last time out. At home, it's not much better – they're conceding two goals a game on average. Remember that 6-2 hiding they took from Grasshoppers at their own gaff? Ouch. The only bright spots were a 2-0 win over Luzern and a 1-0 Europa League win against Lille, but those feel like a long time ago now.

Zurich aren't exactly setting the world alight either, but they're at least having a go. Three wins, three draws in their last ten. They score goals – 17 in that stretch – but their defence is about as solid as a wet paper bag, letting in 20. Their last game was a proper ding-dong 4-3 loss to Basel. Before that, they drew with strugglers Winterthur and lost to Thun. But they did go away and beat a decent St. Gallen side 2-1, so they've got it in them.

Now, the head-to-head is where it gets interesting. The last three meetings between these two have all been belters: 3-2, 2-1, and 3-2 again. Goals, goals, goals. Both teams have scored in five of the last eight clashes. So history says we're in for a show.

When you crunch the numbers, it's hard to see anything but goals. Young Boys concede over two a game. Zurich concede two a game. Young Boys score about one a game at home, Zurich score 1.6 on the road. Put it together and the goal expectancies are pointing towards three or four goals. The bookies have clocked this too, with odds of 1.48 for over 2.5 goals, which tells you what they think.

Key Points:

Young Boys' Form: Dire. 2 wins in 10, conceding goals for fun (22 in 10 games).

Zurich's Approach: Attack-minded but leaky. Score (1.7 per game) but concede just as readily (2.0 per game).

Head-to-Head Trend: A goal-fest recently. Last three matches all had over 2.5 goals.

Defensive Woes: Combined, these two sides are letting in over four goals per game on average recently.

• Home/Away Splits: Young Boys score 1.0 at home, Zurich score 1.6 away. Both defences are vulnerable on their respective turfs.

So, what's the tip? Sometimes you look at a game and it just screams goals. This is one of those. Both teams are shaky at the back, both can find the net on their day, and their recent meetings have been full of action. The value, for me, is in backing there being more than 2.5 goals in the match. It's the clear trend from the data.