Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so Burgos are hosting Granada CF on 12 October, and if you've had a look at the numbers, this one's got a clear lean.
Burgos at home are doing their thing. Eleven wins, seven draws and just two losses in their last 20 home games. That's 2 points per game, 1.4 goals a game, and they've kept 9 clean sheets. Their last two home fixtures were a 1–0 win over Eldense and a 3–1 win over AD Ceuta FC. Solid, no frills.
Granada CF on the road, though, are having a rough time. Seven wins, one draw and 12 losses in their last 20 away games. They're conceding 1.6 a game and only scoring 1.15. In their last five matches, they've won once (that 3–2 at Real Sociedad II), drawn once and lost three times, picking up 12 goals against. The 0–3 at Eibar and the 2–3 losses to Andorra and Leganes don't look pretty.
Now, the head-to-head is mostly old news — four of the six meetings are over a year old — but the one recent one in May 2026 was a 1–0 Burgos win at Granada's ground. And at Burgos's ground, the older meetings have been low-scoring: 1–1, 2–2 and 1–3. Tight affairs.
The one thing that gives Granada a glint of hope is that 3–2 win at Real Sociedad II just eight days ago. They scored three and their xG was 3.6, so they've got the edge to hurt you. Four of their last five games went over 2.5 goals too. But their away record and the fact they've lost three of their last five make it hard to back them here.
Key Points:
- Burgos: 11W 7D 2L in 20 home games, 0.8 conceded per game
- Granada CF: 7W 1D 12L in 20 away games, 1.6 conceded per game
- Burgos won the only recent H2H meeting (1–0 away at Granada)
- Granada have lost 3 of their last 5, conceding 12 goals
- Burgos's last two home games: 1–0 and 3–1 wins
My pick: Burgos home win at 2.5. The home numbers are strong, Granada's away record is poor, and the market's 40% is underpricing what I'd put at around 55%.