Burgos vs Granada CF Prediction

The force is strong with Burgos at home. That is a fact the numbers do not hide, and you must see it clearly. In 20 home games, from December 2025 through September 2026, Burgos have won 11, drawn 7, and lost just 2. They score 1.4 goals per game at their ground and concede 0.8. Nine of those 20 home fixtures ended in a clean sheet. That is a record that speaks for itself, and it speaks loudly, young one.

Across the pitch, Granada CF travel with a very different story. In 20 away games, they have won 7, drawn 1, and lost 12. They score 1.15 per game on the road and concede 1.6. Only 5 of those 20 away games ended without them conceding. The contrast is stark, and stark things, you must see clearly. The home side holds the advantage in every measure the comparison table offers: more wins, more points per game, more goals scored, fewer goals conceded, more clean sheets, fewer games without a goal.

The last five matches tell their own tale. Burgos: three wins, a draw, and one loss. Seven goals scored, four conceded. Granada CF: one win, a draw, and three losses. Eight scored, twelve conceded. The last meeting between these two sides, on 16 May at Granada's ground, ended 0–1 to Burgos. That was the only meeting within the last 12 months. The older fixtures — a 1–1, a 0–0, a 2–2, and a 1–3 — are historical record, not current form, and they dilute the picture. In those older meetings at Burgos's ground, the results were two draws and one loss.

Now, the counter-argument, for balance, must be heard. Granada CF won their most recent game, a 3–2 away victory at Real Sociedad II on 4 October, and their xG in that match was 3.6. Burgos, meanwhile, lost their last game 1–2 at Almeria on 3 October. The head-to-head, in its full six-meeting aggregate, produced three draws. And Granada's scoring output in their last five (1.6 per game) is higher than Burgos' (1.4). So the away side is not without a spark. But a spark, in a house full of fire, is still a spark. The longer the record stretches, the more it favours the home side, and that is where the truth lives.

The market prices Burgos at 2.5 for a home win, implying a 40% chance. My reading of the evidence — the home record, the away record, the recent form, the head-to-head — points to a higher likelihood for Burgos. I rate their chance at roughly 55%, which sits comfortably above the market's view. The draw at 3.32 and Granada at 3.0 both carry implied probabilities that the numbers do not fully support.

Key Points:

• Burgos: 11W 7D 2L in 20 home games; 1.4 scored, 0.8 conceded per game

• Granada CF: 7W 1D 12L in 20 away games; 1.15 scored, 1.6 conceded per game

• Recent form: Burgos 3W 1D 1L vs Granada CF 1W 1D 3L in last five

• Only recent H2H meeting (16 May 2026): Burgos won 1–0 away at Granada

• Granada CF conceded 12 goals in their last five matches

The verdict: Burgos home win.