Preview
PajimonLook, I'm sitting here with my braai going and a cold one in hand, and I'm telling you this one's got a story that's hard to argue with. Burgos at home against Granada CF on 12 October in the Segunda División, and the numbers are singing a pretty clear tune.
Burgos at home is the business. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 11, drawn 7 and lost just 2. That's 2 points per game, 1.4 goals scored per game and only 0.8 conceded. Nine clean sheets in 20 home games. That's not a coincidence, that's a pattern. And their recent form backs it up — three wins and a draw in their last five, including a 3-1 over AD Ceuta FC at home on 11 September and a 1-0 against Eldense on 27 September. Yeah, they dropped the last one at Almeria on 3 October, but that's one blemish in an otherwise solid run.
Now look at Granada CF on the road. Twenty away games, 12 of them lost. Seven wins, one draw, 12 losses. They're scoring 1.15 per game away but conceding 1.6. Only five clean sheets in 20. Their last five games tell the tale: one win, one draw, three losses. They beat Real Sociedad II 3-2 on 4 October, sure, but before that they lost 2-3 at Leganes and 0-3 at Eibar. That away record is not pretty, my friend. And they've not kept a clean sheet in their last five — not once.
The head-to-head is thin on recent meetings. Just one within the last 12 months, back in May at Granada's ground, where Burgos won 1-0 on the road. The older meetings at Burgos's ground are historical: three games, two draws and one loss for Burgos (1-1, 2-2, 1-3). So there's no deep history to lean on, but what we do have points Burgos's way.
The counter-argument? Granada CF did pick up that 3-2 win at Real Sociedad II just eight days ago, and they've scored 1.5 goals per game in their last 10 across all venues. They're not a team that sits down. And Burgos did lose at Almeria on 3 October. So it's not a lock. But the venue records are the story here, and they don't lie. Granada's away record of 12 losses in 20 games is the single most telling number in this fixture.
Key Points:
- Burgos: 11W 7D 2L in 20 home games, 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, 9 clean sheets
- Granada CF: 7W 1D 12L in 20 away games, 1.6 conceded per game, 5 clean sheets
- Recent H2H: Burgos won 1-0 at Granada in May 2026
- Burgos last 5: 3W 1D 1L | Granada CF last 5: 1W 1D 3L
- Granada CF have no clean sheets in their last 5 games
I'm going with the Burgos home win. The numbers at this ground are too strong to ignore, and Granada's away record is a nightmare. At 2.5, I think the market is underpricing what Burgos do at home, and I'm happy to back them.