Burgos vs Zaragoza Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Segunda División clash between Burgos and Zaragoza. On paper, it's a bit of a no-brainer – Burgos sitting pretty in 6th with 28 points, Zaragoza propping up the table down in 22nd with just 16. But as we all know, football's never that simple, is it?

Burgos have been a proper Jekyll and Hyde act lately. Away from home, they're getting results – just look at that 2-1 win at Almeria, who are third in the league! But at their own gaff? Blimey, it's been grim. No wins in their last four home games, scoring a measly one goal in those four matches. That's right, one goal in four home games. They even lost 0-1 to Albacete and 0-2 to league leaders Racing Santander at home. Makes you wonder where the goals are coming from when they're playing in front of their own fans.

Now Zaragoza, they're having a proper nightmare of a season down at the bottom. But here's the funny thing – they've actually been better on their travels than Burgos have been at home! They're scoring 1.40 goals per game away, which is more than five times what Burgos are managing at home. They've beaten Eibar and drawn with Malaga on the road recently. And don't forget, these two just played each other in the Copa del Rey a couple of weeks back – finished 0-0. No goals, not much to write home about.

That brings us to the head-to-head record, which makes for interesting reading. Burgos have only lost once to Zaragoza in nine meetings, and they've never been beaten by them at home. But here's the kicker – five of those nine matches ended in draws, and only two had more than 2.5 goals. This fixture has 'cagey' written all over it.

Looking at the stats, Zaragoza actually have the better attacking numbers – more shots, more possession, better pass accuracy. But Burgos are tighter at the back. It's a classic case of a team that can't score at home against a team that can't defend properly away.

Key Points:

Burgos are 6th but have won none of their last 4 home games

Zaragoza are bottom but score more away (1.40/game) than Burgos do at home (0.25/game)

The last meeting between these sides ended 0-0 in the Copa del Rey

Historically, this fixture produces few goals – only 2 of 9 meetings had over 2.5 goals

• Burgos have never lost at home to Zaragoza (1 win, 2 draws)

So what's the play here? The bookies have Burgos as favourites at 2.05, but with that home form, I'm not touching that with a bargepole. The value, my friends, is in the goals market. Or rather, the lack of them. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.44, and given Burgos' struggles to score at home, Zaragoza's inconsistent form, and that recent 0-0 draw, this has all the makings of a low-scoring affair. I'm backing UNDER 2.5 GOALS.