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Ah, a tale of two stories, this one. Burnley and Charlton meet at Burnley's ground on 13 October, and the numbers whisper a tale that is not so simple as it first appears.
The strongest case for the hosts is written in the last few weeks. Burnley came away from Watford's ground on 10 October with a 4–0 victory, their first win in five matches, and the xG figures from their recent games tell a story of a side creating chances at a rate of 1.33 per game. Charlton, by contrast, have managed just two goals across their last five matches, failing to score in three of them. Their 0–4 defeat at Stoke City on 5 September and the 1–3 loss at Cardiff on 19 September left a mark that has yet to fade. Charlton's xG against stands at 1.35 per game, meaning they are conceding a steady stream of chances. The head-to-head, while entirely historical — the last meeting was in May 2016 — does show Burnley winning five of six previous encounters, but those games are a decade or more behind us and carry no weight for this fixture.
Yet here is the counter-argument, and it is not small. Burnley's home record across 20 games from 27 December 2025 to 19 September 2026 reads 1 win, 11 draws, 8 losses — 0.7 points per game. Charlton's away record across 20 games is 7 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses — 1.4 points per game. In the latest 10 games across all venues, Charlton have 3 wins to Burnley's 1, and their points per game of 1.3 outpaces Burnley's 0.8. The home record is the elephant in the room: a side that has won just one of its last 20 home games is not the side you back at 1.69 with confidence. You must see the whole picture, not just the last game, you must.
The market prices Burnley's win at 1.69, implying a 59.17% chance. My own reading of the evidence — the xG gap, the recent 4–0, Charlton's scoring drought — points toward Burnley being the stronger side, but the home record drags that estimate down. I place Burnley's chance of winning closer to 53 or 54 percent, which sits below the price the market is offering. The draw at 4.03 and Charlton's win at 5.4 both sit below what the evidence supports for those outcomes. On goals, the split is close: Burnley's home games have gone over 2.5 in 10 of 20, Charlton's away games under 2.5 in 13 of 20, and neither side's recent form gives me a clear edge on total goals or both-teams-to-score. The force is there, but the price does not match the truth of the numbers.
Key Points:
- Burnley won 4–0 at Watford on 10 October and have scored 8 goals in their last five matches
- Charlton have scored just 2 goals in their last five, failing to score in three of them
- Burnley's home record: 1W 11D 8L in 20 games; Charlton's away record: 7W 7D 6L in 20 games
- The head-to-head is entirely historical, with the last meeting in May 2016
- Burnley's xG for (1.33 per game) significantly exceeds Charlton's (0.9 per game)
The available prices could not be used for a recommendation. No Bet.