Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so here's the thing about this one. Burnley have won just one of their last 20 home games – one win, 11 draws, 8 losses – and if you've been following the Turf Moor record, you'll know that a draw is practically the default setting. Charlton, meanwhile, have gone five games without a win, picking up three draws along the way, including two 0-0 affairs at home against Portsmouth and QPR.
The head-to-head here is a bit of a time capsule. All five meetings on record go back a decade or more – Burnley won all five of those – but that's 10 to 13 years ago, so I'd treat it as a curiosity rather than a guide. What matters is what these two are doing right now.
Burnley's last five is 1W 2D 2L, and that 4-0 hammering of Watford three days ago has given them a bit of a bounce. They scored 8 and conceded 7 across those five, and they haven't failed to score in any of them. But at home specifically, their last two games were a 1-1 draw with Derby and a 1-2 loss to Bristol City. So the 4-0 was on the road, and the home form is still a bit of a puzzle.
Charlton's last five is 0W 3D 2L. They've scored just 2 goals in that stretch – 0.4 a game – and they've failed to score in three of those five. Their away record over 20 games is actually decent (7W 7D 6L, 1.4 points per game), but their last two away trips ended in a 1-3 loss at Cardiff and a 0-4 defeat at Stoke. That's not a great look heading into a trip to Turf Moor.
The counter-argument is straightforward: Burnley's home record is genuinely poor. One win in 20 is not a lot, and Charlton's away record over 20 games actually outperforms Burnley's home record on points per game (1.4 to 0.7). Charlton have also kept 5 clean sheets in 20 away games, which is more than Burnley have managed at home (2). So this isn't a one-sided affair.
But the draw story is hard to ignore. Burnley have drawn 11 of their last 20 home games. Charlton have drawn 7 of their last 20 away games. In the last five, both teams have been drawing in bunches – 2 for Burnley, 3 for Charlton. The 0-0 scores in Charlton's last five tell you they're not the team to light up a defence, and Burnley at home have been content to settle for a point more often than not.
The market has the draw at 4.03, which implies about 25%. I think the evidence nudges that a touch higher – the draw is the most common outcome at this ground, and both teams have been in a bit of a rut where a point is the most likely result. I'd put my own estimate around 26%, which sits just above the market's view.
Key Points:
- Burnley have drawn 11 of their last 20 home games; Charlton have drawn 7 of their last 20 away games
- Charlton have won just 0 of their last 5, with 3 draws and 2 losses
- Burnley's 4-0 win at Watford came 3 days ago, but their last two home games were a draw and a loss
- The head-to-head is entirely historical (10+ years old) and doesn't inform current form
- Charlton have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches
Verdict: I'm going with the draw at 4.03.