Preview
The Big "O"The Big O here, and I'm telling you, this one's got the smell of goals in the air. Burnley host Charlton on 13 October in the Championship, and while the market has Burnley as favourites on the result, I'm not here for the result — I'm here for the goals. And the goals, my friends, are where this fixture gets interesting.
Burnley's last five games tell a story of a team that's found its scoring touch. They smashed Watford 4–0 just three days before this kickoff, and across those five matches they've scored 8 and conceded 7. Four of those five saw both teams find the net. Their home record over 20 games is even more telling: 14 of 20 have been both-teams-to-score affairs, and they've scored 1.25 per game while conceding 1.6. The xG numbers back it up — Burnley are generating 1.33 expected goals per game and facing 1.29 against, which paints a picture of a match where both boxes get visited.
Charlton, though, are the wildcard. Their last five has been a tale of frustration: no wins, three draws, two losses, and they've managed just 2 goals in total. Three of those five saw them fail to score entirely. That's a real concern for a both-teams-to-score bet. But look at their 20-game away record and the picture softens: they've failed to score in only 3 of 20 away games, and 12 of those 20 have been both-teams-to-score yes. Their xG against is 1.35 per game, which means opponents are creating plenty of chances against them.
The head-to-head is dated — all five meetings listed are from 2013 to 2016, so I won't lean on it for current form. But it does show Burnley have historically dominated this fixture, winning all five with a combined scoreline of 14–1. That's old news, though, and I'm focused on what's happening now.
The counter-argument is straightforward: Charlton's recent scoring drought is real. Three no-score games in five is not nothing, and their last match was a 1–1 draw. Burnley's home record on over 2.5 is exactly 10 of 20, which means this ground doesn't naturally produce a flood of goals. If Charlton park the bus and Burnley struggle to break them down, you could see a low-scoring affair.
But here's where I lean: Burnley's recent form is electric on the scoring front (8 goals in 5, zero no-score games), Charlton's away record over 20 games shows they score in 17 of 20, and the xG data on both sides points to a match where both teams create enough to find the net. The market is pricing both-teams-to-score at 1.87 with an implied probability of 53.48%. My read, based on the home and away records, the recent scoring output, and the xG figures, is that both teams scoring is more likely than the market suggests — I'd put it at around 56%.
Key Points:
- Burnley have scored in all of their last 5 matches and 4 of those 5 saw both teams score
- Charlton's 20-game away record shows both teams scoring in 12 of 20, despite a recent scoring dip
- Burnley's home record: 14/20 both teams to score; Charlton's away record: 12/20 both teams to score
- xG data: Burnley 1.33 for / 1.29 against; Charlton 0.9 for / 1.35 against
The Big O doesn't do nil-nil, and the numbers say this one's got goals in it. I'm going with both teams to score at 1.87.