Burnley vs Leeds Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this scrap at the bottom. Burnley are in a right old mess, sitting 18th with just 4 points on the board. They've been leaking goals for fun lately - getting hammered 5-1 by Man City and losing 2-1 to Villa. The Clarets have only managed one win in their last ten games, and that was against Derby in the cup. At home, they're not exactly setting the world alight either, winning just 33% of their home matches.

Leeds aren't exactly setting the Premier League alight either, mind you. They're 15th with 8 points, but they've shown a bit more grit recently. They had a decent draw with Bournemouth (2-2) and kept a clean sheet against Newcastle (0-0). Their away form isn't brilliant, but they did put three past Wolves in a 3-1 win, so they can score on their travels.

When these two have met in the past, it's usually been pretty tight. Out of 9 meetings, 4 have ended in draws, and Burnley have only won once at home against Leeds in 5 attempts. The last time they played was a 0-0 bore draw.

Looking at the stats, both teams are averaging exactly 1 goal per game scored, but Burnley are shipping nearly 2 goals per game. Leeds are a bit tighter at the back, conceding 1.4 per game. The Whites also see more of the ball (49.6% vs 38.6%) and have more shots, but they're not exactly clinical in front of goal.

This has all the makings of a proper six-pointer between two teams who can't afford to lose. Both are struggling for form and confidence, and that usually means a cagey affair with not many goals. Burnley need to stop the rot at home, while Leeds will be happy to take a point and get out of Dodge.

Key Points:

• Burnley have lost 5 of their 7 league games and sit 18th

• Leeds are 15th with 8 points and have shown slightly better form

• Both teams average exactly 1 goal scored per game

• 4 of 9 head-to-head meetings have ended in draws

• Burnley have won just 1 of 5 home games against Leeds

The Verdict:

This screams low-scoring affair between two struggling sides. Neither team is banging in the goals, and with both teams desperate for points, I reckon we'll see a cautious approach. The under 2.5 goals looks the smart play here - both teams average 1 goal per game, and Burnley are actually decent defensively at home (only conceding 1.0 per game at Turf Moor). At 1.67, there's a bit of value to be had.