Preview
Right then, let's have a natter about this one. Buxton take on Worksop Town on 17 October, and if you've been keeping an eye on the head-to-head, you'll know the hosts have had a good run of this fixture. Both of their last two meetings have gone Buxton's way — a 3–1 at home in December and a 2–1 on the road in April. The pattern's there, and it's a pattern that favours the home side.
Buxton's home record over their last 20 home games is the real story here: 11 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses. They've scored 1.8 goals per game at home and conceded 1.35, which is a solid record for this level of football. Worksop Town's away numbers over 20 games sit a step behind — 7 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses, scoring 1.3 per game and conceding 1.65. So the home side have the edge on the numbers, and the head-to-head at this ground — where Buxton won 3–1 last time they hosted — backs that up nicely.
Now, the elephant in the room, and I can't pretend it isn't there: Buxton have lost their last three games and haven't scored in any of them. That's 0–1 at King's Lynn, 0–2 at home to South Shields in the FA Cup, and 0–4 at South Shields. Three straight defeats, seven goals conceded, and not a single goal on the board. That's a concerning stretch, and it's fair to ask whether the form dip will carry into this one.
Worksop Town, for their part, are in a bit of a mixed bag. They bounced back with a 2–1 win at home to Morecambe, which is a good sign, but before that they lost 0–3 to United of Manchester at home and 1–4 at Chester. Their last five games have been 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. They've scored 10 and conceded 12 in that stretch, so they're not exactly a team to fear on the road.
The counter-argument is straightforward: Buxton's form is poor, and three straight losses with zero goals is hard to ignore. But two of those three were away games, and the home loss was in the FA Cup. Their home record — 11 wins in 20 — is still the strongest thing in this fixture, and the head-to-head at this ground says Buxton won 3–1 last time they hosted Worksop Town.
Key Points:
- Buxton won both recent head-to-head meetings (3–1 at home, 2–1 away)
- Buxton's home record: 11W 1D 8L in 20 games, scoring 1.8 per game
- Buxton have lost their last 3 games, scoring 0 in each
- Worksop Town's away record: 7W 5D 8L in 20 games, conceding 1.65 per game
- Worksop Town won their last game 2–1 at home but lost 2 of their previous 3
So here's where I land: I'm going with the Buxton home win at 1.78. The home record and head-to-head edge are strong enough to push through the recent form dip, and I rate Buxton a touch higher than the market's 56% implied probability.
