Northampton vs Leyton Orient Prediction

It's a proper relegation six-pointer down in League One this Saturday as Northampton welcome Leyton Orient to town. With just a single point separating these two in the drop zone - Northampton sitting in 20th on 34 points and Orient one place below on 33 - this is about as big as it gets in February, mate.

Now, let's not beat around the bush - neither of these sides are setting the world alight. Northampton come into this off the back of a right old hiding at Lincoln, losing 4-0 to the promotion chasers on Tuesday night. But don't let that put you off completely, because prior to that they'd been decent on their own patch. They put three past Stevenage in a 3-1 win recently and have been averaging two goals a game at home. When they play in front of their own fans, they tend to find the net.

The visitors, though? Blimey, it's grim on the road for Orient. They've not won any of their last four away days, and worse still, they've only managed to find the back of the net once in those four trips. We're talking 0.25 goals per game away from home - that's not going to keep you up, is it? They did manage a 0-0 draw at Stockport recently which shows they can dig in defensively, but they followed that up with a 3-0 spanking at Doncaster and a 1-3 home defeat to Plymouth.

Here's the kicker though - Northampton absolutely love playing Orient at home. The head-to-head record is dominated by the hosts, with Northampton winning four out of five home meetings against Saturday's opponents, drawing the other. The last time these two met back in March, Northampton came away with a 2-1 victory. That psychological edge counts for plenty in tight relegation tussles like this one.

Key Points:

• Northampton have won 80% of home meetings with Leyton Orient (4 wins from 5)

• Leyton Orient have 0 wins in their last 4 away games, scoring just 1 goal in that run

• Northampton average 2.00 goals per game at home in recent matches

• Leyton Orient average just 0.25 goals per game away from home

• Both teams sit in the relegation zone with only one point separating them

The Verdict:

Look, this won't be pretty. Relegation battles rarely are. But at 2.62, Northampton look overpriced given their home record against this specific opponent and Orient's shocking away form. Northampton have the Indian sign over Orient on their own turf, and with the visitors struggling to buy a goal on the road, the home side should have enough. It's not a banker - nothing is at this end of the table - but the value's definitely with the hosts.