Monza vs Empoli Prediction

The Serie B season reaches its final stages as third-placed Monza host fourteenth-placed Empoli on May 8, 2026. With Monza sitting comfortably in the promotion playoff spots and Empoli battling to avoid the relegation zone, the stakes are clear, but the statistical divide between these two sides is even more pronounced.

Monza arrives in excellent form, particularly within their own stadium. Across their last four home fixtures, the hosts have secured three victories and one draw, translating to a 75% home win rate. Their defensive solidity is the cornerstone of this success, conceding just 0.25 goals per home game while maintaining a 50% clean sheet ratio over their last ten matches. Offensively, they average 1.75 goals per home outing, demonstrating consistent attacking output without relying on high-volume shooting, as evidenced by their average of 4.25 shots on target at home.

Conversely, Empoli’s away record paints a picture of severe struggles. In their last six road matches, the visitors have failed to secure a single victory, managing only one draw and suffering five defeats. Their away attack has dried up, averaging a mere 0.67 goals per game, while their defense has leaked 1.67 goals per away match. With a clean sheet rate of just 10% over the last ten games, Empoli has shown little ability to stifle opposition attacks on the road. Their pass accuracy away from home sits at a modest 73.8%, reflecting a disjointed midfield performance when traveling.

Historical matchups provide further context. In nine previous encounters, Monza holds a slight edge at home, winning two, drawing one, and losing one. Their most recent meeting in October 2025 ended in a 1-1 stalemate. However, current form drastically outweighs historical data here. The goal expectancy model projects 1.71 goals for Monza and 0.46 for Empoli, pointing toward a controlled home victory rather than a high-scoring affair. Empoli’s away shot accuracy hovers around 26.5%, significantly lower than Monza’s home shot accuracy of 34.6%.

Given the stark contrast between Monza’s fortified home defense and Empoli’s leaky away backline, the statistical evidence heavily favors the hosts. The data aligns on multiple fronts: venue performance, recent form, goal expectancy, and defensive metrics. When a team concedes less than a goal per home game and faces an opponent scoring under a goal per away game, a home win becomes the most logical outcome.

Key Points:

• Monza boasts a 75% win rate in their last 4 home games, averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.25 goals conceded.

• Empoli has a 0% win rate in their last 6 away games, averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded.

• Monza’s clean sheet rate stands at 50% over the last 10 matches, while Empoli’s is just 10%.

• Goal expectancy favors Monza (1.71) over Empoli (0.46), supporting a controlled home victory.

• Head-to-head home record for Monza against Empoli shows a 50% win rate.

Based on the overwhelming statistical advantage at home, the recommended play is a Home Win.