Valencia vs Osasuna Prediction

Alright, gather round! Sunday afternoon and we've got a right interesting one here. Valencia, stuck down in 16th and looking over their shoulders at the drop zone, are hosting an Osasuna side that's been absolutely flying lately.

Now, let's have a butcher's at the form book. Valencia's last ten reads like a dodgy rollercoaster – four wins, sure, but five losses including a proper pasting at Celta (4-1) and recent home defeats to Real Madrid (2-0) and Villarreal (2-1). They did nick a couple of wins against Levante (2-0) and Espanyol (3-2), but they're leaking goals for fun at home – 1.75 per game in their last four on their own patch. That's not exactly fortress material, is it?

Meanwhile, Osasuna are sitting pretty in 9th and come into this on the back of a result that'll have their fans buzzing – they only went and beat Real Madrid 2-1 last weekend! That's part of a run that's seen them lose just once in their last ten (a narrow 1-0 at Girona). They've been picking up points for fun – 1.90 per game compared to Valencia's 1.30 – and they're finding the net regularly with 1.8 goals per game.

The head-to-head makes grim reading for the home faithful too. Valencia have only won 25% of their home games against Osasuna, and they lost 1-0 to them at this very ground back in August. When the away side's in this kind of nick – beating Real Madrid, winning at Celta (2-1), and drawing with Villarreal (2-2) – you've got to sit up and take notice.

The bookies have Valencia as favourites at 2.25, but I'm not having that for a second. Osasuna at 3.20? That's the value shouting at you from the bar. They're seven points clear of Valencia in the table, playing with confidence, and the goal expectancy numbers suggest Osasuna should be scoring more than the hosts here.

Key Points:

• Valencia have lost five of their last ten, including heavy home defeats to Real Madrid (2-0) and Villarreal (2-1)

• Osasuna have lost just once in their last ten matches and beat Real Madrid 2-1 last time out

• Valencia's home record vs Osasuna is poor (25% win rate), losing 1-0 here in August

• Osasuna are averaging 1.90 points per game recently compared to Valencia's 1.30

• The visitors are scoring 1.8 goals per game while Valencia concede 1.5 per game

The Verdict:

Valencia are in a relegation scrap and the pressure's on, but Osasuna are playing with the freedom of a mid-table side with nothing to lose and everything to gain. At 3.20, the away win is proper value – these odds should be much shorter given the form guide. Get on Osasuna to take the points back with them.