Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland Prediction

Alright, footy fans! We've got ourselves a proper Kiwi derby here as Wellington Phoenix host Auckland, and if you're looking for a trend to hang your hat on, I've got a belter for you. Auckland have beaten Wellington five times out of five. Not a draw, not a lucky win – five straight victories. The last meeting in December finished 3-1 to Auckland, and that scoreline's been pretty typical of this fixture.

Now, let's have a butcher's at Wellington's recent form. The Phoenix are sitting down in 10th spot with just 20 points from 17 games, and their defence has been leakier than a rusty bucket. They've conceded 22 goals in their last 10 matches – that's 2.2 per game, mate! Recent results show them shipping four to Newcastle, three to Melbourne Victory, and drawing 2-2 with both Western Sydney and Melbourne City. Sure, they're scoring at home (averaging 2.00 per game at their place), but they're conceding 2.20 at the same time. It's entertaining stuff, but not exactly winning football.

Auckland, on the other hand, are flying high in second place with 29 points. They're tighter than a drum at the back, conceding just 1.20 goals per game over their last ten, and only 1.00 per game on their travels. They've won nearly 43% of their away matches this season. Recent results include a solid 1-0 win over Sydney and a hard-fought 1-1 draw away at the same opposition last week. The only worry is the fatigue – they've played twice in the last 14 days compared to Wellington's single match, and they only had four days' rest while the Phoenix have had eight.

But here's the thing – Auckland could probably play with one hand tied behind their backs and still beat this lot based on the head-to-head. Wellington have never taken a point off Auckland in five attempts. Both teams have scored in four of those five meetings, and four of the five have gone over 2.5 goals, so goals are usually on the menu.

Key Points:

• Auckland hold a perfect 5-0 record against Wellington Phoenix in their all-time meetings

• Wellington have conceded 2.20 goals per game at home this season – only two clean sheets in their last ten overall

• Auckland have conceded just 1.00 goal per game away from home – the best defensive record on the road in this fixture

• Wellington have had eight days' rest compared to Auckland's four days, which could level the playing field slightly

• Both Teams To Score has landed in 80% of their previous meetings and in Wellington's last five home games

• Auckland sit nine points and seven places above Wellington in the A-League table

Summary:

Look, 1.83 for an away win is never going to make you rich, but sometimes you've got to hold your nose and back the obvious. Auckland are the better side by a country mile, they've got Wellington's number historically, and their defence is far superior. The fatigue factor is a concern, but quality usually tells in these situations. I'm backing Auckland to make it six wins from six against the Phoenix. Simple as that.