Empoli vs Venezia Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B scrap between Empoli and Venezia. On paper, you'd think Venezia might have too much quality, sitting pretty in 4th while Empoli are plodding along in 12th. But sometimes the numbers tell a different story, and blimey, they're screaming 'DRAW' at me here.

Empoli's home form is, well, predictable as a Sunday roast. Five of their last six at home have ended level. They're not exactly setting the world alight - 1.33 goals per game at home isn't gonna frighten anyone, but they're not mugs either. The problem is they can't keep a clean sheet to save their lives - just one in their last ten matches. That 4-0 hammering by Pescara shows they can have proper off days.

Now Venezia, they're a funny bunch. Brilliant defensively - only six goals conceded in ten games, which is top-drawer stuff. Six clean sheets in that run tells you they know how to defend. But away from home? They've drawn their last FIVE away matches on the spin. Five! And they're only averaging 0.60 goals per game on their travels. It's like they pack the bus, park it, and hope for the best.

When these two have met before, it's been like watching paint dry - five draws in nine meetings. The last time they played? 2-2, of course. The pattern's there for all to see.

Venezia have the better form overall, no doubt about it. They're averaging 1.70 points per game compared to Empoli's 1.10. But on current trends, Empoli are improving, and Venezia's away form screams 'pointless trip'.

The bookies have the draw at 3.10, which seems generous given both teams' recent habits. Empoli draw at home, Venezia draw away - what else do you need to know? Sometimes the simplest bet is the best one.