Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury Prediction

Alright, grab your pint and pull up a stool – we've got a proper League Two clash on the cards this Saturday as Chesterfield welcome Shrewsbury to town. The Spireites are flying high in the playoff spots while the Shrews are looking over their shoulders, and the numbers suggest this could be a profitable afternoon for the home faithful.

Chesterfield come into this one sitting pretty in 6th place with 56 points on the board. Now, I know what you're thinking – draws have been their middle name this season with 14 of them – but look closer at their home form and you'll see a side that's harder to break into than a safe at the Bank of England. They're unbeaten in their last five at home (two wins, three draws) and have only shipped 0.60 goals per game in front of their own fans. They just put Colchester to the sword 3-0 on Tuesday night, keeping a clean sheet and looking dangerous going forward with 1.40 goals per game at home recently.

Shrewsbury, meanwhile, are down in 17th with 38 points – a whopping 18 points adrift of Saturday's hosts. Sure, they've had a decent little run lately, winning four of their last six including a couple of handy away results at Salford and Accrington. But don't let that fool you. Their away form over the last five on the road reads like a horror story: 40% wins, 0% draws, 60% losses. They've been leaking goals for fun away from home (1.80 per game) and only managing a goal a game up the other end. That 5-1 spanking at MK Dons a few weeks back tells you everything about their travels.

The head-to-head makes grim reading for Shrewsbury fans too. Chesterfield have won three of the last five meetings, including a 1-0 victory when these two locked horns back in December. The home side have the psychological edge and the tactical setup to exploit Shrewsbury's away day frailties.

Looking at the betting markets, the bookies have Chesterfield at 1.90 which looks about right to me, maybe even a touch generous. With goal expectancies sitting at 1.60 for the hosts and just 0.80 for the visitors, the maths points to a home win. You could look at Under 2.5 goals at 1.90 given Chesterfield's defensive solidity, or even Both Teams to Score – No at 2.00, but I'm keeping it simple.

Key Points:

• Chesterfield are unbeaten in their last 5 home games (2 wins, 3 draws)

• Shrewsbury have lost 60% of their last 5 away matches

• Chesterfield have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 home games, conceding just 0.60 goals per game

• Shrewsbury concede 1.80 goals per game away from home recently

• Chesterfield won the reverse fixture 1-0 in December and hold a 3-1 advantage in the last 5 meetings

• Chesterfield's 3-0 win against Colchester on Tuesday shows they're in solid nick

Summary: Sometimes the obvious bet is the right bet. Chesterfield's home fortress against Shrewsbury's away day struggles is a mismatch worth exploiting. At 1.90, the home win offers solid value for a side that's tough to beat on their own patch facing a team that struggles to keep the back door shut on their travels. Back Chesterfield to take the three points.