FC Cincinnati vs Atlanta United FC Prediction

Alright mate, fancy a punt on some Saturday night MLS action? We've got FC Cincinnati hosting Atlanta United, and if the numbers are anything to go by, you might want to get the kettle on rather than expecting a goal-fest.

Let's start with the hosts. Cincinnati have been proper solid at home, winning 60% of their last five at their gaff and averaging 1.2 goals a game. They've had a mixed bag recently - that 3-2 friendly loss to Orlando City was a bit of a kick in the teeth, but before that they nicked a crucial 2-1 win against Columbus Crew and absolutely battered CF Montreal 3-0. The lads know how to dig in when it matters, keeping four clean sheets in their last ten overall.

Now, Atlanta United? Bless 'em, they couldn't win away if their lives depended on it right now. Zero wins in their last four on the road, and here's the kicker - they're scoring just 0.25 goals per game away from home. That's one solitary goal in four matches, mate! They've drawn three on the bounce in friendlies (0-0 against Dallas, 0-0 against New York Red Bulls, 1-1 at Houston), and their only win in ten came against Lexington in a friendly. In proper MLS action, they've been drawing for fun - six draws in their last ten - but that away form is shocking.

The head-to-head usually throws up goals (seven of the last nine went over 2.5), but I'm looking at current form here, not history books. Atlanta are running on fumes too - three matches in the last fortnight compared to Cincinnati's one. When you're only scoring once every four away games and you're knackered, you're not suddenly going to start banging them in against a side that's tight at home.

The bookies are offering 2.25 for under 2.5 goals, which looks generous to me. The Poisson model has this down for about 1.72 total goals (1.10 for Cincy, 0.62 for Atlanta), and with the visitors' inability to find the net on their travels, I'm struggling to see where the goals come from. Cincinnati should control this, but don't expect a cricket score.

Key Points:

• Atlanta United have scored just 1 goal in their last 4 away games (0.25 per game average)

• FC Cincinnati boast a 60% home win rate in their last 5 at home

• Atlanta have played 3 matches in the last 14 days vs Cincinnati's 1 (fatigue factor)

• Cincinnati are unbeaten at home vs Atlanta in 4 meetings (1 win, 3 draws)

• Goal expectancy models predict only 1.72 total goals for this fixture

Summary: The value's on the unders here, simple as that. Atlanta can't score away, Cincinnati are solid at home, and 2.25 for under 2.5 goals is a cracking price given the form guide. Back the low-scoring affair.