Fleetwood Town vs Newport County Prediction

Right then, let's have a butcher's at this League Two clash at Highbury. Fleetwood Town are sat pretty in mid-table looking up at the play-off spots, while Newport County are propping up the entire division like a wonky table leg. Something's gotta give, and my money's on the Cod Army making it a miserable Saturday afternoon for the travelling Exiles.

Fleetwood have found a bit of groove lately, haven't they? Ten points from their last dozen on offer tells the story - they turned over Barrow 3-2 in a thriller last time out at home, nicked a cheeky 1-0 win at Crewe (who are no mugs sitting in sixth), and even managed a point up at Oldham. Sure, they had a rough patch at home earlier in the month against the big boys - losing narrowly to promotion chasers Bromley, Notts County and Cambridge - but they showed their class against the lesser lights by putting three past Barrow. That tells me they know how to handle the strugglers.

Now, Newport. Bless 'em, they're having a torrid time of it. Rock bottom with just 24 points from 33 games, and their away form? Blimey, it's grim. They've lost five of their last six on the road, including a proper hiding at Bristol Rovers (3-0) who aren't exactly setting the world alight themselves in 20th. They did manage a shock 3-1 win at Salford in mid-February, but that's looking like the exception rather than the rule when you consider they're shipping nearly two goals a game away from home.

The head-to-head makes for even worse reading if you're a Newport fan. Fleetwood haven't lost to this lot in the last five meetings, winning three of them including a comfortable 2-0 victory back in December. The Cod Army have got the Indian sign over County, simple as that.

The odds compilers have priced Fleetwood up at 1.67 for the home win, which might look a touch skinny at first glance, but when you weigh up the form - Fleetwood trending up with 10 points from 12, Newport drowning with just three points from their last 12 - plus that dreadful 83% away loss rate for the visitors, it starts to look like solid value. The goal expectancies suggest we might see a few nets bulging too, given both sides' games are averaging 2.8 goals per match recently, but the safe play is backing the side with momentum against the league's basement boys.

Key Points:

• Fleetwood have taken 10 points from their last 12 available in League Two

• Newport have lost 83% of their last six away games (five defeats)

• Fleetwood are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Newport, winning three

• Newport are bottom of League Two with the worst away record in the division

• Fleetwood beat similarly-ranked Barrow 3-2 at home in their last outing

Summary: Back Fleetwood Town to win at 1.67. They're hitting form at the right time and facing a side that's forgotten how to win on the road. It's not the biggest price you'll see this weekend, but it's a banker in a weekend acca.