Clermont Foot vs Rodez Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Ligue 2 clash between Clermont Foot and Rodez. On paper, it's a mid-table scrap with Clermont down in 15th and Rodez sitting a bit prettier in 11th. But the numbers tell a much more interesting story, especially if you're after a bit of value.

Clermont are having a proper stinker of a run, if we're being honest. They've only managed two wins in their last ten, and one of those was against a Laval side who've been conceding goals for fun. They're shipping goals regularly, with no clean sheets in that entire ten-game stretch. At home, they're a bit more lively, scoring nearly two a game on average, but they still can't keep the back door shut. Their last home game was a 1-0 loss to a very good Reims side, but before that they put four past Laval and drew with Boulogne. So, they can score, but they always seem to let one in.

Now, over to Rodez. Blimey, they're a tough nut to crack lately. Unbeaten in their last eight league games, that's proper form. But here's the kicker – five of those were draws. They're the draw specialists, holding the likes of Le Mans and league leaders Estac Troyes. They're also scoring for fun on the road, averaging two goals a game away from home. But, and it's a big but, they haven't kept a single clean sheet in their last ten matches either. Every game, they concede. Their last away game was a 2-1 win at Boulogne, and before that a 3-3 thriller at PAU. Goals, goals, goals.

When these two have met before, Clermont usually have the upper hand, especially at home where they've never lost to Rodez. The last meeting back in September finished 1-0 to Clermont. But that feels like a lifetime ago given their current form.

So, what's the play? The match odds are tight, with the bookies struggling to split them. A draw at 3.38 might tempt some, but I'm looking at the goal markets. If you're looking for a clean sheet in this one, you might as well be looking for a unicorn at the stadium. Neither side remembers what one looks like.

The stats scream that both teams will score. Clermont have seen both teams score in 7 of their last 10. Rodez? A whopping 9 out of 10. That's 90%! When you combine Clermont's decent home attack (1.75 goals per game) with Rodez's prolific away attack (2.00 goals per game), and then mix in two defences that are about as solid as a wet paper bag, it points to one thing: goals at both ends.

The bookies have 'Both Teams to Score - Yes' at 1.75. In my book, that's a bit of value. Given the form, the trends, and the sheer inability of either side to keep a clean sheet, the chance of both scoring feels much higher than the implied probability of 57% those odds suggest.

Key Points:

Clermont Foot have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 10 matches.

Rodez have also conceded in each of their last 10 outings.

Both teams have scored in 70% of Clermont's last 10 and 90% of Rodez's last 10.

Rodez are unbeaten in eight league games but have drawn five of those.

• Clermont have a strong historical home record against Rodez (unbeaten in five).

Summary:

While a cagey draw is a distinct possibility given Rodez's recent habit, the smart money for this preview is on goals at both ends. The value lies with 'Both Teams to Score - Yes' at 1.75. It's the standout bet in a match where defences are likely to be on holiday.