Barnet vs Tranmere Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this League Two tussle. Barnet are sitting pretty in 13th, eight points clear of their visitors Tranmere who are down in 17th. On paper, it's a home banker, but as we know, football isn't played on paper, is it?

Barnet have been a different animal at their own gaff. They're banging in over two goals a game at home (2.2 to be precise) and have won three of their last five there. Just the other day they edged a five-goal thriller, beating Oldham 3-2. They've also put four past Bristol Rovers and two past Crawley Town at home this season. When they face the teams down the bottom, they usually get the job done.

Tranmere, on the other hand, are having a right old wobble. They've lost their last three on the spin, shipping four at Cambridge, three at home to Walsall, and two at home to league leaders Bromley. Their defence has been more porous than a sieve lately, conceding an average of nearly two goals a game over their last ten. Their away form isn't terrible on the face of it – two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five – but those wins came against Harrogate Town and Barrow, who are both struggling near the foot of the table. When they've faced better sides on the road, like Cambridge and Oldham, they've been well beaten.

The head-to-head makes for good reading if you're a Bees fan. The only meeting this season saw Barnet go to Tranmere and come away with a comfortable 2-0 win. That'll give the home side a nice little psychological edge coming into this one.

So, what's the maths saying? The bookies have Barnet at a skinny 1.62 to win. That implies they think Barnet have about a 62% chance. I reckon that's a touch generous to Tranmere. Given Barnet's strong home form and Tranmere's recent slump, I'd make the hosts' chances closer to 65%. That means there's a bit of value in backing the home win.

Key Points:

Barnet are strong at home, averaging 2.2 goals per game in their last five at their stadium.

Tranmere are in poor form, losing their last three matches and conceding nine goals in the process.

The only previous meeting this season ended in a 2-0 away win for Barnet.

Barnet have won 60% of their recent home games, while Tranmere have lost 40% of their recent away games.

• The goal expectancies point towards a 2-1 or 2-0 type scoreline in favour of the hosts.

Summary: All the signs point towards a home victory. Barnet know how to win at home, especially against sides below them, and Tranmere are arriving with their confidence on the floor after a string of defeats. The price isn't massive, but sometimes the obvious bet is the right one. I'm backing Barnet to get the three points.