Crystal Palace vs Fulham Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this London derby on New Year's Day. Crystal Palace and Fulham are locked together on 26 points in the table, but don't let that fool you – their recent form tells two very different stories.

Palace are having a right mare at home. In their last four games at Selhurst Park, they've lost three and drawn one, scoring just three goals and conceding eight. That's a win rate of zero percent, folks. They've been turned over by the likes of Tottenham, Manchester City, and Manchester United, and even shipped four goals to a struggling Leeds side. Their only bright spot in the last ten was a 2-1 win at Fulham just a few weeks back, but that was on the road. At home, they look a different, and far weaker, team.

Fulham, on the other hand, are flying. Six wins from their last ten, and they're doing it home and away. They've beaten West Ham, Nottingham Forest, and Tottenham on their travels recently. They're scoring goals (1.70 per game on average) and, crucially, they've never lost to Palace at Selhurst Park in the head-to-head stats we've got. Not once. That's a proper mental edge for the visitors.

The numbers don't lie. Palace are struggling to hit the target at home, with a shot accuracy of just 25.7%. They're conceding two goals a game on their own patch. Fulham, meanwhile, are more clinical and have been picking up points against the teams around them. They'll be buzzing from a 1-0 win at West Ham and will fancy their chances of avenging that recent defeat.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Palace as slight favourites at 2.15, but I'm not having that given the form. The value, for me, is in the goals. Fulham's games are entertaining – they lost 4-5 to Man City and won 3-2 at Burnley recently. Palace's home games are seeing plenty of action at both ends. The goal expectancy numbers point to over 2.5, and at odds of 1.91, I think that's where the smart money goes.

Key Points:

Crystal Palace have a 0% win rate in their last 4 home games.

Fulham have won 60% of their last 10 matches, home and away.

Palace have never beaten Fulham at home in the provided head-to-head record (0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses).

Palace concede an average of 2.00 goals per game at home.

Fulham score an average of 1.40 goals per game away.

The reverse fixture in December finished 2-1 to Palace.

Summary: It's a classic case of a team in good form against a team in a home slump. Fulham will be confident, but Palace have shown they can score against them. I expect an open game with chances at both ends, and the stats suggest the net will bulge more than twice.

My Tip: OVER 2.5 GOALS