Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Campobasso FC hosting Perugia at their ground on 18 October, and if I'm being honest, the numbers here are telling a pretty clear story.
Campobasso FC at home are a different proposition to their opponents on the road. Over their last 20 home games, they've picked up 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses, scoring 1.4 goals a game and conceding just 1.1. That's a solid record, and they've kept 7 clean sheets in those 20. Now look at Perugia on the other end of the tunnel: 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 away games, scoring 1.05 a game and conceding 1.45. They've failed to score in 6 of those 20 away trips. The gap between these two records is the kind of thing that makes your eye light up.
And the head-to-head? Well, Campobasso FC have won both of the last two meetings between these sides. In April 2026, they took a 1-0 win at Perugia's ground, and before that in December 2025, they did the same at their own end, 1-0 again. In four meetings going back to December 2024, Campobasso FC have won three, drawn none, and lost one. They've scored in every single one of those four. That's a pattern, and it's a pattern that favours the hosts.
Now, I'll be fair — Campobasso FC haven't been flying in their last five. They've got one win, three draws and a loss, and that loss was a 1-3 defeat at Ravenna just seven days ago. They've drawn 1-1 at home to Torres and 2-2 to Pineto, so there's a bit of a pattern of getting stuck. But they did beat Sambenedettese 2-1 away three weeks ago, and they've scored in all five of those recent games. They're not scoring zero, which matters.
Perugia, meanwhile, have been a bit of a rollercoaster. Two wins and three losses in their last five, with the most recent being a 0-2 home defeat to Vado where they had a man sent off in the sixth minute. They've failed to score in three of those five games. On the road, their record is the weaker of the two, and they've conceded 1.45 goals a game away. That's a lot of goals leaking out.
The counter-argument, if you want one, is that Campobasso FC's recent form is a bit flat. Three draws in five games suggests they can get bogged down, and that 1-3 loss at Ravenna shows they're not untouchable. Perugia did pick up a 3-1 win at Gubbio two weeks ago, so they're capable of scoring when they get going. And the head-to-head, while favouring Campobasso, is based on just two recent meetings.
But when you stack it all up — the home record, the away record, the head-to-head, the goals per game — the balance tips firmly towards the hosts.
Key Points:
- Campobasso FC have won both recent head-to-head meetings, 1-0 each, and 3 of 4 total meetings
- Campobasso FC home record: 9W 7D 4L in 20 games; Perugia away record: 5W 7D 8L in 20 games
- Campobasso FC have scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches; Perugia have failed to score in 3 of their last 5
- Campobasso FC home: 1.4 scored per game, 1.1 conceded per game; Perugia away: 1.05 scored per game, 1.45 conceded per game
- Both teams' most recent game was a loss, but the quality of those results and the records around them tell very different stories
So here's my call: Campobasso FC home win at 2.37. The market's pricing them at about 42%, but the evidence — the home record, the away record, the head-to-head — points to a higher chance than that. I'd put it around 55%, which gives you a nice little edge on the price. It's not a certainty, and those three recent draws keep me from going all-in, but the numbers say the hosts should get it done.