Preview
Value VinnyLet's cut through the noise on this one. Campobasso FC host Perugia on 18 October in Serie C Girone B, and the numbers tell a clear story that the market hasn't fully priced in.
Start with the venue. Campobasso FC's home record over the last 20 games at this ground is 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses, averaging 1.7 points per game. They score 1.4 goals per game at home and concede 1.1, with 7 clean sheets in 20. Now look at Perugia's away record over 20 games: 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses, 1.1 points per game. They score 1.05 per game away and concede 1.45, with just 2 clean sheets in 20. The gap in points per game alone — 1.7 to 1.1 — tells you who belongs here.
The head-to-head at Campobasso FC's ground is in their favour. In the recent meeting within the last 12 months at this ground, Campobasso FC won 1–0 in December 2025. The reverse venue at Perugia's ground saw Campobasso FC pick up a 1–0 away win in April 2026, so this fixture has been Campobasso FC's to take for a while now.
Perugia's recent form is a concern. In their last five matches they've managed 2 wins and 3 losses, and they failed to score in three of those five. Their last game was a 0–2 home defeat to Vado with a red card in the sixth minute. Their away record over 20 games spans 12 months, and the older games in that stretch dilute the picture, but the 8 losses in 20 away games are hard to ignore.
Now the counter-argument, because I don't bet blind. Campobasso FC's last five is 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss. They lost 1–3 at Ravenna seven days ago, and before that they drew 1–1 at home and won 2–1 on the road. They're not flying. Both teams lost their most recent fixture, and Campobasso FC's defensive record in that stretch is poor — 9 conceded in 5 games, no clean sheets. If you're looking for a dominant home performance, this isn't it. It's a side that scores in every game (0 failed to score in 5) but leaks goals regularly.
That said, the structural edge is real. Campobasso FC's home record, the head-to-head at this ground, and Perugia's weak away numbers all point the same direction. The market prices Campobasso FC at 42.19% for the win at 2.37. My read, based on the home record, the venue history and Perugia's away struggles, puts Campobasso FC's chance closer to 50%. That's a gap worth acting on.
Key Points:
- Campobasso FC's home record: 9W 7D 4L in 20 games, 1.7 ppg, 1.4 scored per game
- Head-to-head in the last 12 months: Campobasso FC won both meetings (1–0 at home, 1–0 away)
- Perugia's away record: 5W 7D 8L in 20 games, 1.1 ppg, 1.45 conceded per game
- Campobasso FC scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches; Perugia failed to score in 3 of 5
- Both teams lost their most recent fixture, but the structural edge remains with the hosts
My pick: Campobasso FC home win at 2.37.