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Campobasso FC have built a solid home record, and the numbers back it up. Across 20 home games, they've collected 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses, averaging 1.7 points per game while scoring 1.4 and conceding just 1.1. That's a dependable base, and the head-to-head sharpens the picture: in the two recent meetings between these sides, Campobasso FC won both — a 1–0 at their own ground in December and a 1–0 on the road at Perugia in April. At this venue specifically, Campobasso FC have won their only recent meeting, and the older 2–1 from 2025 adds to the pattern. The full head-to-head spans 16 months, so the older games dilute the current form, but the two meetings within the last 12 months tell a clear story.
Perugia, though, are the little puppy in this fixture, and I always root for the underdog. Their away record over 20 games tells a tougher story: 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses, with 1.05 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game. They've failed to score in 6 of those 20 away outings, and their last five matches have been a rollercoaster — a 3–1 win at Gubbio two weeks ago, a 1–0 home win against Reggiana, but also 0–2 losses at Grosseto and to Vado at home, the latter with a red card in the sixth minute. Their last game ended 0–2, and they've failed to score in three of their last five. The away record is the one that matters most here, and 5 wins from 20 away games is a thin return.
The counter-argument for Perugia is real: they beat Gubbio 3–1 on the road just 14 days ago, and their last 10 games show 4 wins. But the away record is the one that matters most here, and 5 wins from 20 away games is a thin return. Campobasso FC, for their part, have scored in all five of their recent matches and seen both teams score in every one of those games, which keeps the door open for goals on both ends. Their last game, though, was a 1–3 loss at Ravenna, and that current run of one defeat is a small cloud over an otherwise steady home record.
The market prices Campobasso FC as the slight favourite at 2.37, with the draw at 3.25 and Perugia at 2.9. As a tipster who only backs the underdog, I've looked hard for value in Perugia's corner, but the evidence doesn't support it. Their away record is poor, they've failed to score in three of five recent games, and they've lost both recent meetings to this very opponent. The draw and the other underdog markets don't clear my confidence bar either — Campobasso FC have drawn 3 of their last 5, but the head-to-head shows zero draws in four meetings, and the away record for Perugia is weighted more toward losses than level results.
Key Points:
- Campobasso FC won both recent head-to-head meetings, 1–0 at each venue
- Campobasso FC's home record: 9W 7D 4L in 20 games, 1.4 goals scored per game
- Perugia's away record: 5W 7D 8L in 20 games, 1.05 goals scored per game
- Perugia failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches
- Campobasso FC scored in all 5 of their recent matches, with both teams scoring in every one
No Bet — the football and the price on the underdog side don't offer enough value to justify a recommendation.