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Campobasso FC host Perugia on 18 October in Serie C Girone B, and the numbers at their ground tell a clear story. Across 20 home games, Campobasso FC have won 9, drawn 7 and lost 4, averaging 1.7 points per game. They score 1.4 goals per game at home and concede 1.1, keeping 7 clean sheets in those 20 fixtures. Perugia, by contrast, have won just 5 of their 20 away games, drawn 7 and lost 8, managing 1.1 points per game. They score 1.05 per game on the road and concede 1.45, with only 2 clean sheets in 20 trips. The gap between these two records is the single most telling piece of evidence in this fixture.
The head-to-head reinforces it. In the last 12 months, Campobasso FC have won both meetings: 1–0 at their own ground in December 2025 and 1–0 at Perugia's ground in April 2026. Two clean, low-scoring victories. The older meetings from 2024 and 2025 are historical record only. Across all four meetings, Campobasso FC have won 3 and lost 1. The recent form of the visitors is poor: Perugia have lost 3 of their last 5, failed to score in 3 of those 5, and their most recent game was a 0–2 home defeat to Vado with a red card in the sixth minute. Their away record over 20 games spans 12 months, meaning older results dilute the picture, but the 8 losses in 20 away games are hard to ignore.
The counter-argument, and the reason I cannot call this a certainty, is Campobasso FC's own recent form. Their last five games produced 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss. The most recent result was a 1–3 defeat at Ravenna on 11 October, just seven days before this kickoff. Before that, they drew 1–1 at home to Torres and 2–2 at home to Pineto. Three draws in five games is not the profile of a team that wins comfortably. They have scored in all five of those matches, but they have also conceded in all five, and they have kept zero clean sheets. The 3 draws suggest a side that can grind out a point but does not yet show the dominance the home record implies.
Perugia's 2 wins in their last 5 — a 3–1 away at Gubbio and a 1–0 home against Reggiana — show they are capable of scoring, but the 3 losses and the 3 goalless games paint a picture of a team that struggles to find consistency, particularly on the road. The red cards in two of those five games (the Vado loss and the Grosseto defeat) add a layer of unpredictability.
Key Points:
- Campobasso FC's home record (9W 7D 4L in 20) is markedly stronger than Perugia's away record (5W 7D 8L in 20).
- Campobasso FC won both of the last two head-to-head meetings, both 1–0.
- Perugia have lost 3 of their last 5 and failed to score in 3 of those 5.
- Campobasso FC's last 5 games include 3 draws and a 1–3 loss, showing they are not at full command.
- The market prices Campobasso FC's win at 2.37, implying a 42.19% chance.
The football points firmly toward Campobasso FC, and the price of 2.37 offers value against the market's 42.19% implied probability. But my own reading of the evidence — the mixed recent form, the three draws, the goalless clean-sheet record in the last five — puts the true chance of a home win at roughly 52%. That is a solid edge over the market, but it is not the 65% certainty I demand before I put a name to a bet. If it's not certain, it's not happening. No Bet.