Cardiff MET vs Trefelin Prediction

Right, so we've got Cardiff MET hosting Trefelin on 9 October, and let me tell you, the form gap here is as wide as the difference between a proper braai and a sad plate of vegetables.

Cardiff MET have come into this one with their heads up. They've won their last two games, both 1-0, and in both of those they kept a clean sheet. The 1-0 away at Llandudno on 3 October and the 1-0 at home against Haverfordwest County AFC on 29 September – two tight wins. Before that, they drew 2-2 at home with Caernarfon Town (though they did get a man sent off in the 37th minute) and lost 0-1 at GAP Connah S Quay FC. So 2W 2D 1L in the last five, 1.6 points per game, and they've only conceded 4 in that stretch.

Now look at Trefelin. This one hurts. They've lost their last two – 0-3 at Airbus UK on 3 October and 1-3 at home to The New Saints on 26 September. In those two games they scored 1 and conceded 6. And if you zoom out to their last ten, it's 0W 3D 7L. Zero wins. They've scored 5 goals in ten games and conceded 24. That's 0.5 a game going in and 2.4 coming out. They haven't kept a clean sheet in ten. That's not a team having a rough week, that's a team struggling to find a win.

The head-to-head is blank – no meetings on record – so we can't lean on history here. But the current form tells the whole story.

Now, I'll give Trefelin credit where it's due. Their away record over the last 20 games is actually solid – 13W 2D 5L, 2.05 points per game, 2.45 goals scored per game. That's a team that has won on the road before. But that record spans 12 months and the older games dilute what's happening right now. What's happening right now is a side that hasn't won in ten, is leaking goals at 2.4 a game, and just got thrashed 3-0 on the road six days ago.

Cardiff MET's home record over 20 games is 9W 6D 5L, 1.65 points per game, 1.9 goals scored per game. They've kept 4 clean sheets in 20 home games. Their last two home results were a 1-0 win and a 2-2 draw, so the home form is solid but not dominant.

The counter-argument I have to acknowledge: Trefelin's away record is historically strong, and Cardiff MET have drawn 2 of their last 5. A 1-1 or 0-0 isn't out of the question. But when your opponent hasn't won in ten games and is conceding 2.4 a game, the draw or loss scenarios become very thin.

Key Points:

• Cardiff MET won their last two 1-0 with clean sheets; Trefelin lost their last two, scoring 1 and conceding 6

• Trefelin have 0 wins in their last 10 games, 0.3 points per game, and 0 clean sheets in that stretch

• No head-to-head meetings on record, so current form is the only guide

• Trefelin's strong away record (13W in 20) is 12 months of data and heavily diluted by their current run of results

• Cardiff MET's home record: 9W 6D 5L over 20 games, 1.9 goals scored per game

My pick: Cardiff MET home win.