Carrarese and Arezzo meet at Carrarese's ground on 28 October in Serie B, and the numbers tell a story of two teams in remarkably similar shape. Both sides sit at 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses across their latest 10 games, both score 0.8 goals per game, and both have failed to score in a handful of those fixtures. The head-to-head between these two clubs is entirely historical โ no meetings within the last 12 months โ so there is no recent pattern to lean on. The last time they met was in January 2024 in Serie C, and the five older meetings span back to 2018. That means this fixture is being judged on current form and venue records rather than a shared history.
The strongest case in this match points to Arezzo's away record. Over 20 away games, Arezzo have won 11 times, drawn 4 and lost 5, accumulating 1.85 points per game. That is the highest points-per-game figure in the matchup table. Their away attack scores 1.35 per game and they have failed to score in only 6 of those 20 outings. The xG data reinforces the picture: Arezzo's defence has conceded 1.42 expected goals per game across their recent matches with xG data, the highest defensive figure in the comparison, which suggests their backline is vulnerable. Carrarese, by contrast, create 1.48 xG per game โ the highest attacking figure in the table โ and their home defence concedes just 0.9 per game across 20 home fixtures, with 8 clean sheets. That is one of the strongest defensive records on display.
The counter-argument, however, is Arezzo's recent form. Four days before kickoff they were thrashed 0โ3 at home by Benevento, and five weeks ago they lost 1โ4 to Sudtirol on the same ground. Their last five matches yield just 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses at 0.8 points per game. Carrarese, while they lost 1โ2 at Palermo three days ago, won their two games before that โ 2โ1 at home to Modena and 2โ0 at Padova โ and their home record of 8 wins in 20 games gives them a solid base. The xG figures also show Arezzo creating only 0.95 expected goals per game, the lowest attacking figure in the comparison, which raises questions about whether they can find the goal in a tight away game.
On goals, the evidence is split. Carrarese's home games have gone over 2.5 in 9 of 20 and under in 11; Arezzo's away games show the same 9-over, 11-under split. In the latest 10, Carrarese have had 3 over-2.5 games while Arezzo have had 6. The xG totals suggest a combined expectation of roughly 2.4 goals, which tilts slightly toward under 2.5, but the 20-game records keep it close to a coin flip. Both teams have scored in 4 of their last 10 games and not scored in 6, making the both-teams-to-score market essentially a 50-50 proposition.
Key Points:
- Both teams are at 3W 1D 6L in their latest 10 games, with identical 0.8 goals-per-game output.
- Arezzo's 20-game away record (11W 4D 5L, 1.85 PPG) is the standout figure, but their last five matches show only 1 win.
- Carrarese's home defence (0.9 conceded per game, 8 clean sheets in 20) matches the best defensive record in the comparison.
- The head-to-head is entirely historical with no meetings in the last 12 months; all five listed meetings date back at least two years.
- xG data suggests a combined expected total of roughly 2.4 goals, keeping the under-2.5 and both-teams-not-to-score markets close to even.
This is a genuinely even contest with no outcome I can rate above the 65% bar I demand before staking a coin. The available prices do not offer the margin I need to feel comfortable. No bet.
