Carrarese vs Reggiana Prediction
Mid-table battle with both teams likely to score
Preview
Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B scrap between two sides who are basically neck and neck in the table. Carrarese sitting in 10th with 15 points, Reggiana just above them in 9th with 16 - proper mid-table stuff this!
Now here's the thing that catches me eye - these two just can't seem to beat each other! Six meetings between them and Carrarese have NEVER won against Reggiana. Five draws and one Reggiana win. Last time they met it finished 2-2, and before that 0-0, 0-0, 1-1... you get the picture, yeah? These matches are tighter than a Scotsman at a charity auction.
Looking at recent form, Carrarese are a bit draw-happy aren't they? Two wins, five draws, three losses in their last ten. They're scoring goals though - 1.6 per game - and letting in exactly the same amount. At home they're decent going forward with 1.8 goals per game, but that defense is about as solid as a chocolate teapot at times.
Reggiana have been slightly better with three wins, four draws, three losses. But here's the killer stat for me - away from home they're shipping goals like there's no tomorrow! 2.2 goals conceded per game on their travels. That's proper leaky, that is. Still, they do manage to score 1.4 per game even when they're getting battered.
Both sides have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent matches, and when you look at the numbers, it makes perfect sense. Carrarese banging them in at home, Reggiana's defense falling apart away from home... smells like goals to me!
The stats back this up - Carrarese average more shots (13.8 vs 9.4) and have more possession (51.4% vs 43.9%), so they'll likely create chances. Reggiana might be under pressure more, but they've shown they can still nick goals even when getting hammered.
With the head-to-head being so tight and both teams' recent form pointing towards goals, I'm leaning towards both teams finding the net here. Reggiana's away defense is just too generous to keep a clean sheet, and Carrarese at home should get their chances.