Catanzaro vs Empoli Prediction

Right then, let's have a butcher's at this Serie B clash down in Calabria. Catanzaro are hosting Empoli on Sunday afternoon, and on paper, this looks like a right mismatch for the punters.

Catanzaro are flying high in 5th place with 46 points from 28 games, proper promotion form that. They've won 12, drawn 10, and only lost 6 all season. Looking at their recent results, they're in decent nick – four wins in their last ten, including a cracking 3-1 away win at Virtus Entella and back-to-back 2-0 home victories against Mantova and Reggiana. Sure, they had a mad 3-3 draw at Carrarese last time out and shared the spoils with promotion rivals Frosinone (2-2), but they're scoring goals for fun at the moment – 1.6 per game over the last ten.

Now, Empoli. Blimey, where do we start? They're languishing down in 12th with just 31 points, and their recent form is about as dodgy as a three-pound note. One win in their last ten matches – that's relegation form, mate. They got absolutely battered 3-0 at Carrarese and lost 3-2 at Palermo recently. The only bright spot was a 2-2 draw at high-flying Frosinone, but even then they couldn't hold onto the points. Away from home, they've won just 20% of their last five on the road, conceding two goals a game.

The head-to-head makes interesting reading – Empoli have won both previous meetings, including a 1-0 victory earlier this season. But we're talking about a sample size of two games, and given current form, I'm not reading too much into that.

Statistically, Catanzaro are rock solid at home. They've not lost in their last four at their gaff (two wins, two draws), conceding just 0.5 goals per game. Empoli, meanwhile, are shipping two a game on their travels. The goal expectancies have this down as 1.75 to 0.85 in favour of the hosts, which sounds about right to me.

Key Points:

• Catanzaro are 5th in Serie B, pushing for promotion with 46 points from 28 games

• Empoli sit 12th with just one win in their last ten matches (W1 D4 L5)

• Catanzaro unbeaten in last four home games (W2 D2), conceding just 0.5 goals per game

• Empoli have lost 60% of their last five away games, conceding 2.0 goals per game

• Home win priced at 1.85 represents solid value given the 15-point gap in the table

Summary:

Empoli are struggling for consistency and can't keep the back door shut on their travels. Catanzaro are the much stronger side here, especially at home where they've been tighter than a drum defensively. At 1.85, the home win looks a cracking bet. I'm backing the hosts to keep their promotion push rolling with three points on Sunday.