Preview
PajimonPajimon here, and I'm cracking open a cold one for this one. Cavese are at home on 18 October to face Casarano in Serie C Girone C, and the numbers are singing a pretty clear tune.
Let's start with what Cavese do at home. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 9, drawn 6 and lost 5, racking up 1.65 points per game. They score 1.4 per game at home and concede just 0.85, with 8 clean sheets in that stretch. More importantly, their last two home games have been wins — 2–0 against Casertana on 3 October and a 4–2 thrashing of Savoia on 26 September. That's a team that's found its rhythm in front of its own crowd.
Now look at Casarano on the road. Their last 20 away games read 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses — 1.1 points per game. They score 1.2 per game away but concede 1.35, and they've failed to score in 8 of those 20 outings. Their last two away trips have been a 0–2 loss at Sorrento and a 1–1 draw at Savoia. In their last five matches overall, they've scored just 2 goals and conceded 4, with three of those five ending in a blank sheet for themselves. That's a team that's struggling to find a way into games on the road.
The head-to-head is thin on recent evidence — just one meeting within the last 12 months, a 1–1 draw at Cavese's ground back in January. The older meetings go back three years and include a 3–0 Casarano win and a 3–0 Cavese win, so there's no clear pattern there. I'd say the H2H is dated and we should lean on current form, which points firmly to Cavese.
The counter-argument? Cavese did lose 2–3 to Sorrento at home on 15 September, and they drew 1–1 at Barletta just six days ago. They're not flawless. Also, Casarano did manage a 0–0 with Salernitana at home last week, so they can park the bus. And the market has Casarano's win at 30.77%, which suggests bookmakers see a genuine chance of an upset. But when you stack up Cavese's home numbers against Casarano's away numbers, the gap is hard to ignore. I rate Cavese's chance of winning at around 52%, which sits comfortably above the 40.49% the market is implying for the home side.
Key Points:
- Cavese have won 9 of their last 20 home games, scoring 1.4 per game and conceding 0.85
- Casarano have lost 10 of their last 20 away games and failed to score in 8 of them
- Cavese's last two home games were wins (2–0 and 4–2); Casarano's last two away games were a loss and a draw
- The only recent head-to-head meeting was a 1–1 draw at Cavese's ground in January
- Casarano have scored just 2 goals in their last five matches and failed to score in three of them
My verdict: Cavese home win at 2.47.