Athletic Club vs Paysandu Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this basement battle in Brazil's Serie B. Athletic Club, sitting pretty in 15th, host the rock-bottom Paysandu in what's basically the final curtain call for both sides this season.

Now, Athletic Club haven't exactly been setting the world alight at home, have they? They're scoring a measly 0.80 goals per game on their own patch - that's barely enough to get the pub landlord to notice you've ordered a round. Their recent form shows a 0-0 draw against league leaders Coritiba, which was decent, but they've also been shipping goals for fun with 1.60 conceded per game overall.

Paysandu, bless 'em, are having an absolute shocker. Dead last with just 28 points, they've been about as solid as a chocolate teapot defensively. Zero clean sheets in their last 10 games - not a single one! But here's the interesting bit: they've been finding the net away from home recently, banging in 1.75 goals per away game in their last four travels. That 4-2 win at Criciuma was no fluke either.

When these two met earlier in the season, it finished 1-1, and I reckon we could see something similar. Both teams have been about as leaky as a sieve defensively, with Athletic keeping just 2 clean sheets in 10 and Paysandu keeping, well, none. The stats show both teams score in 60% of Athletic's games and a whopping 80% of Paysandu's matches.

The bookies have Athletic as short as 1.36 for the win, which seems a bit rich given their home form has been about as convincing as my mate's excuse for being late. Both teams to score at 2.38 looks much more appealing to me - it's like finding a tenner in your old jeans, that one.

Key Points:

• Athletic Club struggling at home with just 0.80 goals per game

• Paysandu haven't kept a clean sheet in 10 matches

• Both teams score regularly: Athletic 60%, Paysandu 80% BTTS rate

• Previous meeting ended 1-1

• Paysandu scoring better away recently (1.75 goals per away game)

Given both sides' defensive nightmares and the fact there's no pressure on either team, I'm fancying both teams to get on the scoresheet here. It might not be pretty, but it should be entertaining enough for a punt.