Cesena vs Avellino Prediction

Alright, Pajimon here, and I'm telling you this fixture has a clear edge if you read the right numbers. Cesena host Avellino on 18 October, and the home-versus-away records are doing the talking.

Cesena's home record over 20 games is solid: 7 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses, 1.4 points per game. They average 1.65 goals scored per game at home and concede 1.4. Now flip to Avellino's away record over 20 games: 5 wins, 3 draws, 12 losses, 0.9 points per game. They score just 1 per game on the road and concede 1.75. That's a clear gap in Cesena's favour when you put the two sides side by side.

The head-to-head at this venue adds weight. In November 2025, Cesena beat Avellino 3–0 at home. The other recent meeting, at Avellino's ground in January 2026, went 3–1 to the hosts. So each side has won at their own ground in the last 12 months, but the scoreline at Cesena's ground was comfortable.

Now the counter-argument, and I respect it: Avellino's recent form is hot. Three wins, one draw, one loss in their last five, 2 points per game. They beat Sampdoria 4–1 at home nine days ago and haven't failed to score in any of those five. Their xG across four recent games is 1.2 per game, well above Cesena's 0.88. So they're scoring and creating at a high rate.

But here's the thing — that hot form is mostly at home. The 4–1 over Sampdoria and the 3–0 over Vicenza were both at Avellino's ground. On the road, their record is 5W 3D 12L, and they've failed to score in 8 of those 20 away games. Cesena's last loss was 0–2 at Benevento, but that was away. At home, they've drawn 2–2 with Cremonese and 1–1 with Mantova — not great, but they're not losing.

Key Points:

• Cesena home: 7W 7D 6L, 1.4 ppg, 1.65 scored per game

• Avellino away: 5W 3D 12L, 0.9 ppg, 1.0 scored per game

• H2H at this venue: Cesena won 3–0 in November 2025

• Avellino's recent form is strong (3W 1D 1L) but mostly at home

• Both recent H2H meetings produced 3+ goals

My pick: Cesena home win at 2.34.